Congressman Jamaal Bowman could be the first member of the so-called Squad to lose his seat, as a well-funded primary opponent is crushing him in both the polls and in terms of advertising dollars. Mr. Bowman’s anti-Israel positions and his past embrace of conspiracy theories and toxic political groups have apparently soured voters in New York’s 16th District on their own representative.

The Westchester County executive, George Latimer, has been running a campaign on getting “progressive results” done, and says Mr. Bowman is about nothing more than “rhetoric” and “press coverage.” He has a powerful ally in the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has helped make the Bowman–Latimer primary the most expensive in American history. 

In total, $23 million has been spent so far in run up to the 16th District’s Democratic primary, with the vast majority being spent by Mr. Latimer and Aipac. Mr. Latimer’s campaign has spent about $2.5 million to unseat Mr. Bowman, but Aipac’s outside spending group — the United Democratic Project — has dispersed more than $14 million in both pro-Latimer and anti-Bowman ads.

A pro-cryptocurrency spending group called Fairshake has also spent $2 million attacking Mr. Bowman in the primary because he voted against the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, a cryptocurrency regulation bill that would help alleviate some uncertainties in the market. 

Mr. Bowman’s campaign and the groups supporting it have been unable to keep up with the vast sums of money fueling the slick 30-second ads that are bombarding the New York area broadcasting market. The congressman’s campaign has spent $2 million, and the biggest outside groups supporting him — the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party — have spent just more than $1.5 million combined, according to OpenSecrets. 

The United Democracy Project was established by Aipac in January 2022, but the group’s relative youth seems to have no impact on its ability to cut ads and blanket the airwaves. For the entirety of the 2022 midterms, the United Democracy Project raised more than $35 million and spent nearly $33 million in less than a year. For the 2024 cycle, the group has raised more than $50 million to spend in both primaries and in the general election, though it has spent about $24 million. 

Some had hoped that a midterm redistricting following a successful legal challenge from Democrats would help Mr. Bowman retain his seat despite primary challenges because his new district includes Co-op City — a community of about 50,000 residents of the North Bronx, the overwhelming majority of whom are Black. 

Polling, though, has not shown that to be the case. When he defeated Congressman Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, Mr. Bowman took 55 percent of the vote. When Mr. Bowman faced three primary challengers in 2022, he walked away with 57 percent of the vote. 

Now, his approval rating seems to have fallen. A recent poll from Emerson College shows the congressman winning just 31 percent compared to Mr. Latimer’s 48 percent. 

Endorsements have flowed Mr. Latimer’s way in recent months as well, including from Senator Clinton and a former New York governor, David Paterson. Local officials like a state senator, Peter Harckham, and an assemblyman, Chris Burdick, also have endorsed the Westchester County executive. A former congressman, Mondaire Jones, who is running to reclaim a seat in the northern part of Westchester County against a sitting Republican, endorsed Mr. Latimer on June 3. 

“Mr. Bowman has denied that Hamas committed assault against Israeli women on October 7. And he recently accepted the endorsement of the Democratic Socialists of America, whose New York City Chapter amplified that pro-Hamas rally that took place the day after October 7,” Mr. Jones said in an interview with the Albany Times Union. “Now I happen to believe that it’s progressive to be pro-Israel, and that puts me at odds with some people on the far left.”

The Democratic Socialists of America — of which Mr. Bowman is a card-carrying member — was recently brought up in a debate by Mr. Latimer as an example of the congressman embracing antisemitic fringe groups. On October 7, the DSA said in a statement that the Hamas attack was “a direct result of Israel’s apartheid regime.” During an endorsement interview with DSA in May, Mr. Bowman came out against funding for the Iron Dome, a defensive missile technology used in Israel. 

Aipac and the United Democracy Project have tried to knock off a few “squad” members this year. Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib did not face an Aipac-backed challenger in part because she has a substantial campaign warchest and is popular in her Detroit-based district. 

Congresswoman Summer Lee, who, like Mr. Bowman, consistently votes against sending money and arms to Israel, easily dispatched her Aipac-endorsed primary challenger in April. 

After Mr. Bowman’s primary on Tuesday, the next challenge for Aipac and the United Democracy Project will be unseating a St. Louis lawmaker who — like other “squad” members — has been fiercely anti-Israel, Congresswoman Cori Bush. Aipac’s spending group is already running ads in the area for a local prosecutor who is challenging Ms. Bush, Wesley Bell.