Happy Monday! Election Day is one day away. We’ve got a full plate of reporting from the field, including dispatches from the three Midwest presidential battleground states, plus a report from Ohio’s critical Senate race. 

A programming note: We’ll be covering all the results and events of election night tomorrow on a very special Dispatch Live, so be sure to tune in.

• In case we needed any more confirmation the presidential race is close, the New York Times and Siena College released their final battleground state polls on Sunday. Here are the toplines from that poll: Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in Nevada (49 percent to 46 percent), North Carolina (48 percent to 46 percent), Wisconsin (49 percent to 47 percent), and Georgia (48 percent to 47 percent). Trump and Harris are tied in both Pennsylvania (at 48 percent) and Michigan (at 47 percent). The only state where the poll’s results are just outside the margin of error is Arizona, where Trump leads Harris 49 percent to 45 percent. 
• Harris appeared on NBC’s Saturday Night Live in the program’s cold open, where she gives advice to Maya Rudolph, who portrays the vice president in the sketch. However, the appearance drew criticism from Brendan Carr, the Federal Communications Commission’s senior Republican commissioner, who called it “a clear and blatant effort to evade” a rule that compels networks to give equal time to opposing presidential candidates. To comply with the rule, NBC gave Trump free commercial spots during broadcasts of a NASCAR race and Sunday Night Football, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
• One key Senate race to watch is for Michigan’s open seat, which leans Democratic but is likely to follow the close presidential contest. At a small get-out-the-vote rally in Grand Rapids on Sunday, the Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers,  told volunteers “this thing’s going to be wire-thin” but suggested to the group this could be the year that all parties hope for, a bigger-than-expected blowout. Afterward, however, Rogers level-set with Dispatch Politics. “My gut tells me it’s going to be close,” he said. “But the momentum is on our side.” His Democratic opponent, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, appeared later in the day at a rally for Kamala Harris in East Lansing (more on that event below). When Slotkin mentioned her opponent’s name, the Democratic crowd began booing. “We don’t need to boo, we need to beat him,” she said, noting that Rogers won his first House race in 2000 by flipping a Democratic seat by one of the closest margins that year.
• The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Friday moved multiple House races in Democrats’ favor. Among the key changes: GOP Rep. Don Bacon’s race in Nebraska’s 2nd District and New York Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s 4th District race both went from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” A Democratic pickup in the Nebraska race would give Harris a key Electoral College vote since the state divides those votes up by district. One silver lining for Republicans was the change from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” in Michigan’s open 7th District, currently represented by Slotkin.
• While campaigning for Rep. Brandon Williams, a vulnerable Republican in New York, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he expected that “we probably will” repeal the CHIPS Act should Republicans retain their majority in the House. Williams, whose district is set to benefit from multiple planned computer chip fabrication plants thanks to CHIPS Act subsidies, jumped in to defend the legislation. “I will remind him night and day how important the CHIPS Act is,” he said while he and Johnson were speaking to reporters. Johnson later backtracked, putting out a statement saying he did not support repealing the law but that “there could be legislation to further streamline and improve the primary purpose of the bill—to eliminate its costly regulations and Green New Deal requirements.”

EAST LANSING, Michigan – With less than 48 hours until the polls close here, Kamala Harris has dispensed with the subtlety. 

“I love Gen Z!” the vice president declared Sunday evening, as the full Jenison Field House at Michigan State University shook under the force of the cheers and screams from a largely—if not entirely—student crowd. “I do, I do. And here’s one of the things I love about this generation, you, this incredible generation. You all, you all are rightly impatient for change. … I know that about you.”

Clearly understanding the need to “know your audience,” Harris crafted her closing pitch this weekend to appeal to a college crowd full of idealistic young people. She commended them for having to navigate what she characterized as a uniquely challenging world. (“You all have only known the climate crisis. … You, who grew up with active shooter drills … you, who know—now know—fewer rights than your mothers and grandmothers.”) She flattered them for their importance (“I see you, and I see your power.”) and played the role of supportive parent. (“I am so proud of you. Can we hear it for our first-time voters?”)

And the kids, most of whom weren’t old enough to vote in 2020, were all right with all of that. “It’s nice to have people recognizing Gen Z and the power that they hold, instead of just being like, oh, it’s Gen Z, they don’t do anything,” Michigan State sophomore Alexandra Kochanny told Dispatch Politics.

It’s a clear strategy by the Harris campaign in the final days of the race to court college voters—particularly in the battleground states of the Midwest, where big state schools offer ready-made platforms to reach large numbers of motivated young people. Last week in Madison, home of the University of Wisconsin, Harris held a celebrity-filled rally geared particularly toward college-aged women that included a short set from up-and-coming star Gracie Abrams. Two days earlier, Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, held a rally in Ann Arbor right off the campus of the University of Michigan that featured singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers.

And while there were no musical acts before Harris in East Lansing, the event was tailored to these new young voters. The fieldhouse was decorated with campaign banners in Michigan State green, and for students who couldn’t make it into the facility, the campaign erected a large screen and sound system next door on the aptly named Dem Field, in front of Demonstration Hall.

The vice president’s final swing through Michigan, where the RealClearPolitics polling average has her leading Donald Trump by less than a point, was hardly limited to the college campus. Earlier on Sunday, Harris made appearances throughout the Detroit area, including stops at black-owned businesses in Detroit’s Livernois neighborhood and in suburban Pontiac. And the Democratic ticket will hold its final Michigan event in Detroit tonight, when Walz and his wife, Gwen, will hold a rally featuring a performance by Jon Bon Jovi.

MILWAUKEE—Kamala Harris and Donald Trump converged here Friday evening, hosting dueling campaign rallies less than 7 miles apart in their final push for victory in battleground Wisconsin, decided by fewer than 21,000 votes four years ago and headed for another photo finish.

The RealClearPolitics average of Wisconsin polls shows Harris with a statistically insignificant lead of 0.3 percentage points. The FiveThirtyEight average shows the vice president leading Trump by 0.8 points. But supporters of the former president aren’t buying data. In interviews conducted while waiting to be let into the Fiserv Forum arena in downtown Milwaukee for one of the Republican nominee’s signature rallies, the consensus was that the public opinion polls are wrong. Trump, these voters told Dispatch Politics, is winning.

“My sense is, is that there’s a lot of Trump supporters that are not participating in the polls,” 

said John Kessler, 69, a retired fire investigator. 

“I do not think it’s close. I think it’s what the media wants us to believe it is,” added Marlene, a cosmetologist who declined to provide her last name and traveled from Illinois to see Trump in person. 

Trump supporters aren’t the only poll skeptics. Political analysts, pollsters, data geeks, and journalists wonder about the accuracy of the surveys, although their concerns run in both directions. They worry about polls underestimating support for the former president—and that they might be doing the same for the vice president. 

Still, the high confidence Trump voters have in the former president’s prospects for a return to the White House stood in stark contrast to the more cautious optimism of the Harris supporters Dispatch Politics interviewed across town at the Democratic nominee’s rally at the Wisconsin State Fair Park Exposition Center in West Allis.

Like their counterparts waiting to see Trump at Fiserv Forum, the atmosphere at the Harris rally was festive. Voters at the Trump gathering were decked out in campaign gear and paraphernalia; so were the voters 6.5 miles down the road at the Harris confab. And both groups of voters spoke glowingly of their nominee. Trump supporters say the former president is relatable and appreciate his authenticity. Harris backers are attracted to her positivity—the “joy”—and say they are encouraged by the economic agenda she has proposed.  

But the similarities in how both groups were approaching the final weekend before Election Day ended there. 

“I can’t believe it’s that close. It’s amazing,” said retiree Pam Baranowski, with a sense of sarcastic bewilderment, as she waited for the Harris rally to get underway in West Allis. Charles Marks, 67, a retired public school principal, sounded equally exasperated by how close the race is: “With everything she has to offer, and almost nothing he has to offer, I can’t believe it’s that close.”

At both rallies, we found some voters who bucked the trend of their partisan compatriots.

“I’m nervous,” said Jean Jones, a middle-aged Trump voter who works in marketing. “Of course.”

Conversely, Harris voter Raquel Padilla, who works in retail management and traveled from Illinois to catch a glimpse of the vice president, isn’t nervous—or at least is much less so than others who share her affiliation. Padilla believes there could be a silent vote for Harris not captured in the polls. “I think a lot of people are being quiet,” she said. “In my neighborhood I usually see lots of Trump signs. I don’t see any this year.”

PHILADELPHIA—Gov. Josh Shapiro said in an interview Sunday that enthusiasm for Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania down the stretch of a toss-up presidential campaign is “bordering” on Barack Obama circa 2008, acknowledging that Donald Trump, too, is buoyed by fervent support.  

“What is clear to me is there is real enthusiasm for Kamala Harris—and let’s not deny the fact that there’s enthusiasm on the other side as well,” Shapiro told Dispatch Politics while campaigning for the vice president in a mostly black neighborhood north of downtown Philadelphia. “But I’m seeing, as I travel across this state—rural, urban, suburban communities—an added level of enthusiasm for Kamala Harris.”

“I’m feeling very optimistic,” the Democratic governor added. “I’m also mindful that elections are really close here. In Pennsylvania, the last two came down to a point or less, so it’s not a shock to me, going into Election Day, the polls show a jump ball. But I’m feeling really good about where we are.” (We asked Shapiro if the race for Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes might not have been a jump ball had he been Harris’ running mate, rather than Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. The governor didn’t think much of our question. “Kamala Harris made a really good pick,” he said bluntly.)

So, what does a jump ball mean? In the RealClearPolitics average of Pennsylvania polls, Trump leads Harris by 0.3 percentage points. In the FiveThirtyEight average, the former president leads the Democratic nominee by 0.2 points. In other words, a statistical tie. To push the vice president over the top in the commonwealth, Democrats are looking for a big turnout in Philadelphia County, which four years ago delivered 603,790 votes for Joe Biden and a 63.5 percent margin of victory over Trump there.

That’s among the reasons Shapiro and Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker were campaigning for Harris in the Germantown neighborhood of the city and talking about the vice president’s economic agenda with a gathering of small business owners and executives—many of them racial minorities. Harris needs a big turnout from the city and the county, and black residents constitute the largest racial group in Philadelphia County, according to statistics compiled by the U.S. Census.  

That’s why Parker, Philadelphia’s 100th mayor and first woman to hold the job, is running “Operation TOP” (Operation Turnout Philadelphia,) with the goal of delivering more votes for Harris in Philadelphia County than what Biden garnered in 2020. The mayor sounded confident she would reach that goal. “People are excited and inspired because they’re for something and I think also for the very first time, unlike in 2016, they understand what’s on the damn line right now. I think in 2016, no one thought it could happen,” Parker said, referring to Trump’s win in Pennsylvania eight years ago.

“We know what’s on the line—I think Philadelphia and the five-county area, southeastern Pennsylvania—I think we’re going to show up; I think we’re going to show out,” the Democrat added. As in other battleground states, Democratic confidence in Harris is fueled in part by her campaign’s extensive and sophisticated voter turnout operation. Dispatch Politics spoke briefly with a local government official who requested anonymity to speak candidly, and this individual cited Harris’ “good ground game” built for being able to draw the raw vote totals out of the city and county of Philadelphia needed for victory statewide.

And similar to what Shapiro said about enthusiasm for Harris, this local official said Harris’ operation was reminiscent of the impressive get-out-the-vote program fielded by Barack Obama all those years ago. “If she doesn’t win, it’s not going to be for lack of trying,” this individual said.

PIKETON, Ohio—Not far from the border of Ohio and Kentucky lies the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant. For close to 50 years, it enriched uranium, often to help America’s nuclear weapons program during the Cold War. It suspended operations in 2001, allowing private sector companies to begin using it, and it still serves as an economic center in this small southern Ohio community.

The community is small, but it is nonetheless vital to Sen. Sherrod Brown’s reelection campaign. The three-term Democratic incumbent needs to stay afloat in places like Pike County, where the plant is located, to fend off Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. If he’s able to do so, the unflashy constituent service he has done for this area and others across the Buckeye State during his nearly 18 years in the Senate will be key to his victory. 

“Any time we’ve needed some help, he’s always been there with us,” Herman Potter, president of the local United Steelworkers chapter that represents a number of the plant’s employees, told Dispatch Politics as he drove a reporter around the grounds. “Like I said, he’s a labor guy, and he’s a sincere labor guy.”

Voters like the ones Potter represents have been trending more and more toward Donald Trump, which is one reason the former president has performed so well in Ohio the past two times he has run for the White House. To secure a third term, Brown does not need to win a majority of these constituents in Pike County and the surrounding locales, but he does need to run ahead of previous statewide Democratic candidates.

Trump won Pike County in 2016 by a more than 2-to-1 margin and took surrounding Ross and Scioto counties by a similar advantage, expanding his lead in all three jurisdictions in 2020. In 2022, his future  running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance also blew out his opponent, then-Rep. Tim Ryan, in these places. Contrast the performances by Democrats in those elections with Brown’s in 2018, where he stayed within about 10 points of then-Rep. Jim Renacci in these counties to win another six years. 

Leaders in communities such as these noted the things Brown has delivered while in office, which did not deal with hot-button national issues that Democrats have campaigned on at the national level.

Potter, the union president, said Brown has advocated for the diffusion plant to receive a contract to develop a new enrichment program, which would bring 500 new jobs to the plant. “He’s been trying to make sure all the T’s are crossed and the I’s are dotted, to make sure that the funding comes to here to decide to do this,” he said.

By contrast, Potter said Moreno’s campaign hasn’t been in contact. “He’s got a big learning curve—big learning curve—to understand this site, and, as far as we know, he has not done anything,” Potter told Dispatch Politics. Likewise, he characterized Vance as being “fairly nonresponsive” to the union since he took office. Moreno’s and Vance’s teams did not respond to requests for comment.

A bit further north, Democratic Mayor Luke Feeney of Chillicothe, the county seat of Ross County, noted Brown’s involvement in a move from a bipartisan group of senators to block a Department of Veterans Affairs initiative that would have closed or downsized a number of its facilities nationwide, including a hospital in his city.

“In terms of impact on our community, Sen. Brown’s work to save that facility is, in my mind, the thing that if you asked somebody around here, ‘What do you know him for?’ that would be the issue most recently and [that] resonates most, I think, with people,” Feeney said.

Even local Republican officials in nearby counties where Brown also outperformed fellow Democrats praised or at least acknowledged his work for their constituents. Don Mason, the Republican mayor of Zanesville just east of Columbus, mentioned the senator’s signing on to a successful bipartisan effort to tank a Department of Energy rule from the Biden administration that would have impacted a Cleveland-Cliffs manufacturing plant in his city.

“The workers of the Cleveland-Cliffs steel facility and the city government were very pleased to be able to coordinate with Sen. Brown as he was able to get the Department of Energy to change their position on the type of steel that can be used for transformers,” Mason said.

Kevin Ritter, a Republican who serves on Washington County’s board of commissioners in the southeastern part of the state, detailed Brown’s efforts to give farmers in his area assistance during a severe drought in the summer.

“Sen. Brown’s office was engaged on that issue,” Ritter told Dispatch Politics. “They sent out information via media sources as to how farmers could apply for benefits.”

But Ritter, who is running for the state House of Representatives, characterized it as an electoral gambit on Brown’s part, saying that the senator has only been to Washington County once in the six years Ritter has been commissioner.

“Obviously, I look at that a little bit cynically. It is a campaign season,” he said. “We’re not used to seeing him down here. It’s interesting that he showed up on that issue just before the election.”

In response, Brown’s campaign noted that he met with labor leaders in Marietta, the seat of Washington County, in October, but it did not name another visit.

“Sherrod is an 88-county senator running an 88-county campaign and has secured major wins for southern Ohio—from saving the Chillicothe VA, to standing up to the Biden administration to protect over 600 jobs in Weirton, to fighting to make sure mine workers have the health care, benefits, and pensions they earned,” a campaign spokesperson told Dispatch Politics, referencing a future Cleveland-Cliffs plant in Weirton, West Virginia, just across the border from Ohio, which Brown has said will employ people from his state. The campaign argued that Brown’s pressure on the Department of Energy to change the rule that would have impacted the Zanesville facility also allowed Cleveland-Cliffs to produce transformers at the Weirton plant.

After being up as many as 6 points in late July, the incumbent is clinging to a lead of about 1 point in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, and he and Moreno have traded slim leads in recent surveys.

• Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns across Pennsylvania today, headlining a canvass kick-off in Scranton and  hosting rallies in Allentown, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia.
• Former President Donald Trump today hosts campaign rallies in Raleigh, North Carolina; Pittsburgh; Reading, Pennsylvania; and Grand Rapids, Michigan. 
• Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and his wife, Gwen, begin today with an event thanking supporters in St.Paul, Minnesota, before heading to Wisconsin for campaign stops in La Crosse, Stevens Point, and Milwaukee. In the evening, the Democratic vice presidential nominee and the Minnesota first lady head to Michigan to host a Harris campaign rally in Detroit.
• Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio this morning campaigns in La Crosse, Wisconsin. In the afternoon, the Republican vice presidential nominee campaigns in Flint, Michigan. In the evening, he campaigns in Atlanta and Newtown, Pennsylvania.
• Second gentleman Doug Emhoff campaigns for Harris today in Greenville, North Carolina, before heading to Pennsylvania to join up with the vice president.
• The Trump campaign’s Pennsylvania Team Trump Bus Tour continues today with stops in Bartonsville, Telford, and Bensalem, featuring headliners that include former Trump Cabinet official Ben Carson; Reps. Byron Donalds and Mike Waltz of Florida and former Pentagon official Kash Patel, among others.
• First lady Jill Biden campaigns for Harris in North Carolina, with stops in Carrboro, Winston-Salem, and Durham.
• Former Democrat and former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard headlines a Team Trump on Tour event this afternoon in Hendersonville, North Carolina.
• Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro campaigns for Harris in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, joined by actor Robert DeNiro.
• Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Georgia Democrat, campaigns for Harris in Macon, Georgia.
• The Harris campaign hosts campaign rallies with surrogates and “special musical guests” this evening in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Raleigh, North Carolina.  
• Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer campaigns for Harris in Detroit and Novi, Michigan.

“You know something Donald Trump will never do? Donald Trump will never go out there and say that his fellow citizens should be censored or silenced for disagreeing with him.”

—Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. J.D. Vance at a rally in Aston, Pennsylvania, November 3, 2024