2024 Election Is 2 Days Away: Here’s What the Final Polls Show

By: Epoch Times - US Posted On: November 03, 2024 View: 2

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So far, about 75 million people have voted early.

With just two days to go before the Nov. 5 General Election, multiple final polls show that the 2024 presidential race still appears to be close.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are crisscrossing the country to rally voters in the states that matter most. At the same time, each side is investing massive resources to drive up turnout for the final voting period.

What Final Polls Are Saying

Multiple final polls released by the New York Times-Siena College, Morning Consult, Rasmussen, ABC News, Atlas Intel, and NBC News show that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck, although the picture becomes more murky when broken down by swing states.

Morning Consult’s final survey of the election shows that while Harris has a 2-point lead over Trump nationally, Trump is ahead of Harris in North Carolina and Georgia by 2 points, ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin, tied in Arizona, and tied in Pennsylvania. The only swing state where the former president is trailing is Michigan, where he is down 1 point, according to the pollster.

An NBC survey released this weekend, meanwhile, shows that Harris has support of 49 percent of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, and Trump received an identical 49 percent. About 2 percent of voters said they are not sure.

Released this weekend, the final NYT opinion poll showed Harris with marginal leads in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin and Trump just ahead in Arizona. The two are in close races in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, according to the poll, which surveyed 7,879 likely voters in the seven states from Oct. 24 to Nov. 2.

That poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in Nevada, 2 points in North Carolina, 2 points in Wisconsin, and 1 point in Georgia. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while the survey shows Trump ahead by 3 points in Arizona.

Meanwhile, in an ABC News-Ipsos poll released over the weekend, Harris had 49 percent support, while Trump had 46 percent. The final poll from Rasmussen Reports, posted on Nov. 1, shows that Trump has a 3-point lead over Harris.

The final survey from Atlas Intel shows Trump is ahead in all swing states by 1 point to 6.5 points, with the pollster saying he has “significant margins” over Harris in Nevada and Arizona.

A model produced by poll analyst Nate Silver, who used to operate the FiveThirtyEight website, has given Trump a 53.8 percent chance of winning over Harris’s 45.8 percent.

Silver, at the same time, has accused some pollsters of putting their “finger on the scale” and lying to keep the presidential race close in polls, according to a podcast interview last week.

Early Voting Breakdown

As of Sunday morning, about 75 million people have voted early across dozens of states.

More than 41.5 million have voted in person early, compared with 34.7 million who have returned mail-in ballots so far, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. About 67 million mail ballots have also been requested to date.

The total of early in-person voting has significantly outpaced the total seen in the 2020 election, which featured more voting by mail due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. According to the tracker, 35 million people cast in-person early ballots, whereas more than 65 million returned mail ballots in 2020.

Of the two dozen states that report early voting by party affiliation, registered Democrats have a slim 1.7-percent lead over registered Republicans. Some 14.6 million Democrats have cast early ballots, Republicans have cast 13.9 million, and unaffiliated voters have cast just under 10 million, according to the election tracker.

Swing State Breakdown

While Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan don’t report by party affiliation, four other battleground states do.

In Arizona, registered Republicans are ahead of registered Democrats by about 180,000 votes, while unaffiliated voters make up about 26.7 percent of the total votes cast, the tracker shows. The state only has mail-in ballots, not early in-person voting.

In Nevada, Republicans have a 40,000-vote lead in the early-vote total, buoyed by a strong in-person vote showing, the data show.

Days after early voting opened in North Carolina, registered Republicans took a slight lead over Democrats and have maintained the advantage as of Sunday, according to the tracker. GOP voters currently have a 42,000-vote lead over Democrats in that state.

While only 1.7 million people have voted early in Pennsylvania, Democrats have a 400,000-ballot lead over Republicans, the tracker shows. Pennsylvania, which has about 9 million registered voters, only reports mail-in ballots.

Final Events

Trump began Saturday with an appearance in North Carolina; he stopped next in Virginia and returned to the Tar Heel state in the evening. There is perhaps no more important swing state than Pennsylvania, where Trump is campaigning Sunday. He also has appearances scheduled for North Carolina and Georgia.

Harris campaigned in Atlanta on Saturday before a rally in North Carolina’s capital, signs that her team is sensing opportunity in the South. She’s planning multiple stops in Michigan on Sunday, shifting to a Democratic-leaning state in the “blue wall” where her allies believe she is vulnerable.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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