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Liberal data analyst Nate Silver believes Trump will win the election. His forecast puts Trump somewhere in the mid-50s and Harris in the mid-40s.
During a recent appearance on the Risky Business podcast, he accused pollsters of cheating and putting their fingers on the scale in order to make the race appear closer than it actually is.
He says that the race has gradually drifted to Trump over a long period of time and notes that Harris has been regularly losing ground.
The Economic Times reports:
Are pollsters playing favorites? Nate Silver says they’re ‘misleading the masses’ in 2024 Presidential race
Polling expert Nate Silver criticized other pollsters for manipulating survey results in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election. He accused them of recycling past results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appearing close. Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, called out pollsters for “herding” their numbers, specifically mentioning Emerson College in his criticism.
“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said during an episode of his weekly podcast, Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!”
Silver’s own model shows Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as the election nears. He expressed frustration with pollsters showing close races consistently, arguing they were trying not to stand out. He suggested, “Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!”
Watch the video below, strong language warning:
Nate Silver to pollsters: “You’re f*cking herding. You’re cheating … Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying. You’re putting your f*cking finger on the scale.” pic.twitter.com/kowED2GiBd
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 31, 2024
Here’s Silver’s forecast:
Nate Silver’s 2024 election forecast:
Trump: 53.8%
Harris: 45.8% pic.twitter.com/nCSIHcHlJW— Kyle James (@KyleJamesLive) November 1, 2024
We will soon know if he is right.
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