There is a lovely window in American political life that opens the Friday before Election Day every two years in which there is, thank God, nothing left for politicians and their acolytes to say. 

All the spin has been spun, all the talking points have been nailed to the wall. There’s always lots of umbrage to be taken and outrage to gin up, but at this late hour, the race is what it’s going to be. Not that it will stop anyone from saying it all again, but we’ve entered the window where we can mostly ignore it. We are long past persuasion and now into the final push, which is really about logistics.

This is the part where the campaigns shift from trying to get their golden geese—high-propensity voters who are likely to vote early or at least already have a plan for voting on Tuesday—and focus on getting the tough ones to the polls. Rented vans full of erstwhile Hill staffers and campaign aides will be disgorging young politicos clutching styrofoam coffee cups and campaign literature into the neighborhoods of the seven swing states to knock on the doors of targeted recalcitrant registrants to beg and plead for them to please, please go vote. 

Nursing homes and senior living centers, working-class apartment complexes, job sites and office parks, no place will be safe from these fresh-faced but bleary-eyed aspiring leaders of the future whose résumés will one day read “2024 voter mobilization outreach coordinator, Bucks County, Pennsylvania.” These multibillion-dollar endeavors with their war rooms, ad buys, targeted communications strategies, and all that jazz will end with a bunch of people in chinos and running shoes sticking flyers inside people’s screen doors and hoping for the best.

Appropriately for a country that is pretty hard to shock anymore, there haven’t been any “October surprises.” Or maybe it’s better said that there have been many, but in our narrowly divided nation and siloed partisan media, not much can break through to move large numbers of voters.

As we’ve discussed for months, this has been an extraordinarily static race for president. There have been three substantial moves. The first, and biggest, was when Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race, uniting and enthusing Democrats. Next was the departure of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose remaining voters almost all went with him over to former President Donald Trump. In October, Harris slipped a bit and Trump gained a bit, but she clung to the thinnest of leads. But at the very end, both candidates went down and the undecided share jumped back up, a final flutter that suggested that maybe there is something churning under the surface.

We close our Statshot average with Harris ahead nationally by exactly 1 point, well inside the swing state shift, but with lots of reason to think that there will be substantial error in the polls: a race that looks close, but actually isn’t. 

There are three basic scenarios for next week. 

In the first case, Harris was understated in the polls and, with only a modest overperformance, wins the same kind of victory that Joe Biden did in 2020 and Barack Obama did in 2012. Not a blowout, but decisive. 

The second case is that Trump was, again, understated and he, again, claws his way to a win by flipping at least one—and maybe all—of the Blue Wall states of the upper Midwest like he did in 2016.

In either of those cases, the polling error will be a relief to race watchers because it means we will have a conclusive outcome on the same day or, at worst, a couple of days. Without the changed COVID restrictions on casting and counting ballots, it’s not unreasonable to expect a quicker count this time around. Certainly elections officials are prepared in ways that they were not four years ago.

Which brings us to scenario three, in which the polls are correct. Oh boy. Trump is looking like a winner in Arizona and Georgia, and—barely so—in North Carolina. That wouldn’t get him to a win, though. And in all the states that Harris has to hold, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the race is essentially tied. 

If that’s the case, we’d spend days, or maybe weeks, agonizing over very small numbers of votes in one or more of those states. We’d have emergency Supreme Court hearings and all kinds of shenanigans. Woof.

You would probably like to know as soon as possible which of those three realities you’re living in, but trust me, not as much as I would. I love my work, but I think that like a good dose of horseradish, I’ve enjoyed about all of this one that I can stand.

For the coverage I will provide for NewsNation and at The Dispatch on Tuesday I need to know as soon as possible what kind of election we’re dealing with. To that end, and with the generous help of my American Enterprise Institute colleague, the great Nate Moore, we have put together a cheat sheet for us and for you to use as the results unfold. 

Like New Hampshire’s Dixville Notch in the primaries, this pair of red states will report the first votes of the 2024 general election. Democrats will be watching Harris’ margins in suburban Hamilton County for clues as to how the college-educated white voters are trending in the Midwestern battlegrounds. Expect Hamilton to swing left—if Trump is matching his 2020 performance, Republicans will be happy. 

Trump will win both states, but statewide race calls won’t be made until polls close in northwest Indiana and western Kentucky at 7 p.m. 

Polls close in our first swing state! Despite a protracted count in 2020, Georgia generally counts ballots pretty quickly. Counties can begin counting absentee ballots on Election Day, so by 7 p.m. some areas will have decently large batches of votes ready to report. Expect these to lean blue. 

Beyond the Peach State, Florida will start reporting results, though no race call can be made until polls close in the Panhandle at 8 p.m. State law requires early votes and all mail-in ballots must be reported by 30 minutes after polls closing. 

Barring the extraordinary, expect calls for Trump in Indiana and Kentucky and for Harris in Vermont. 

Like Georgia, North Carolina will begin reporting large quantities of votes pretty quickly. Early votes and absentee ballots—the majority of the statewide vote—will report between 7:30 and 9:30. Keep an eye on Nash County for early clues about Harris’ performance with rural black voters. If Trump wins Nash, he’s likely on his way to a statewide win. 

Expect ruby-red West Virginia to be called for Trump right when polls close. This window will also mark the first Senate flip of the night, with Republican Gov. Jim Justice expected to easily win Joe Manchin’s old seat. Trump likely wins South Carolina in this window as well. 

In 2020, Virginia was called for Biden at 7:36. If Harris matches her current polling, she can expect a call around a similar time. Close House races like the state’s 2nd District and 7th District will take a while longer. 

At 8 p.m., the floodgates open. 

We’ll have about half the total vote in North Carolina and a quarter in Georgia. Earlier this year, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp signed a law that requires counties to tabulate absentee and early votes within an hour of the 7 p.m. poll closing,  so expect a significant chunk of these votes to be in around 8. If Trump wins Florida in a landslide, we might have a call in this window as well. 

The first results in Pennsylvania should drop shortly after the polls close, but prepare for a longer count of absentee and mail-in ballots. We’ll also get our first results in Michigan, even as residents of the Upper Peninsula have an extra hour to cast their ballots. A new law allows earlier processing of absentee ballots, which should speed up reporting, but it’s best to wait for significant portions of Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw counties before jumping to any conclusions. 

The Lone Star State will start reporting early votes and mail-in ballots just after polls close, but we’ll have to hold out another few hours for Election Day vote. Keep an eye on Denton and Tarrant counties to see if Colin Allred has a shot at a Senate upset. 

Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Oklahoma should be called for Trump right at 8 p.m., while Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island will join Harris’ column. 

Though Trump will easily capture the Razorback State, the 8:30 window still promises lots of excitement. 

North Carolina and Georgia will start reporting Election Day votes so we’ll have a clearer picture of whether Trump is hitting the margins he needs with this GOP-leaning segment of the electorate. 

Pay special attention to the Atlanta exurbs as Democrats hope to continue making inroads with wealthy college-educated voters here. If Harris keeps Trump’s margin under 30 in Forsyth County and under 37 in Cherokee County, she is likely in good shape statewide. Both campaigns will also be watching margins in Baldwin and Washington counties: If Harris wins both, she’s probably getting the rural black turnout she needs across the state. 

In the 9 p.m. window, North Carolina should surpass 70 percent and Georgia will cross the 50 percent threshold. If Harris outperforms the polls in these Sunbelt battlegrounds, her campaign will be feeling pretty great. If Trump looks on track to win both, buckle up for a long night as we wait for the blue wall to report. 

Expect near-immediate calls for Trump in North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming and Louisiana. Harris will take New York and, barring a total Hispanic collapse, New Mexico. 

Nebraska’s at-large electoral votes will go for Trump, as will two of its three congressional districts. The 2nd District leans toward Harris, but as early votes are reported, keep an eye on Republican incumbent Don Bacon, who likely needs to outrun Trump by a sizable margin to survive. We’ll also get our first look at the unexpectedly tight Senate race between Deb Fischer and Dan Osborn. 

Though polls close in Arizona, don’t expect results until the 10 p.m. window. Wisconsin will report its first results, but state law prevents officials from processing absentee ballots until Election Day so we’ll have to wait a while longer for these crucial ballot drops. 

With Nevada’s close, all battleground states will have finished voting. But don’t expect any quick results from the Silver State, as no results are reported until the last voter in line has voted. In 2022, this wasn’t until well after midnight. 

By this point, we’ll have a majority of the vote in at least 15 states including Texas, Colorado, South Carolina, and Ohio. Around this window in 2020, Trump won Kansas and Missouri, while New Hampshire and Colorado were called for Biden. 

Arizona will report mail-in ballots shortly after 10 p.m.—which should be about half the total vote. The rest will trickle in as precincts tabulate Election Day results. Though county officials don’t expect full results until early Wednesday morning, watch Maricopa County. Team Trump wants to carry Maricopa, but a loss of 1 or 2 points might still snag him a statewide win. 

Montana will report its first results in the crucial Senate race between Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy. The state won’t cross the 50 percent mark until early Wednesday, but the first few fully reported counties should offer a strong indication as to whether Tester can survive.

There won’t be any surprises on the West Coast, at least not as far as the presidential contest goes. Idaho will make its contribution to the GOP as Democrats quickly cash in their mother lode of 54 votes in California as well as another 20 from the Pacific Northwest.

But don’t hold your breath for results from the many contested House races in California. While Washington and Oregon have good track records for quick counts in their all-mail elections, California is a mess, with a lengthy window after Election Day for ballots to trickle in. 

But the 11 p.m. hour could be consequential in terms of calls. If Harris has pulled an Obama and is going to put the race away, this is a prime time to see some consequential calls. 

If you’re still glued to your TV after midnight, expect a focus on the blue wall states—with the occasional update from Arizona. Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) expects a full count by midnight and Harris’s performance will tell us a lot. She will want to carry the county by 20 or more points if she hopes to win statewide. Over in Michigan, election officials in Wayne County (Detroit) expect to finish counting by midnight as well. Black turnout there could make or break Harris’s chances statewide. Biden won the county by 38 points in 2020. 

Around this time in 2020, Ohio and Iowa were called for Trump, while Minnesota joined Biden’s tally. If the Ohio Senate race between Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno remains tight, however, we may not have a call there yet. 

Over on the East Coast, Georgia and North Carolina will have counted close to 99 percent of their ballots. We should have a solid sense of where both are headed, but don’t expect any official race calls. 

We’re not going to be sweating Alaska’s presidential vote. Republicans have won the state in 15 of its 16 presidential contests—every one but 1964. There is a hot House race there, but don’t stay up waiting for precinct results to be hauled in by sled dogs.

But we may still be cooking up calls. The Associated Press call for Donald Trump’s 2016 victory came in at 2:29 a.m. ET on, by then, Wednesday. If Trump has drawn another inside straight, it may not be until the wee small hours when enough of the vote from congested urban precincts is counted to make certain that there’s no chance for Harris, that the final call can be made.

It may sound crazy to say, but have fun and don’t worry too much. Don’t let fear of the future ruin the spectacle of what is truly one of the world’s greatest pageants of democracy.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

General Election

Kamala Harris: 48.4%  (↑ 1.6 points from last week)
Donald Trump: 47.4% (↑ 1.6)

[Average includes: TIPP: Trump 49% – Harris 48%; Echelon Insights: Trump 48% – Harris 50%; Ipsos/Reuters: Trump 46% – Harris 47%; CCES: Trump 47% – Harris 51%; NYT/Siena: Trump 47% – Harris 46%]

Generic Ballot

Democrats: 47.0% (↑ 0.6 points from last week)

Republicans: 47.2% (↑ 0.4)

[Average includes: Echelon Insights: 47% Democrats – 48% Republicans; Emerson: 48% Democrats – 48% Republicans; NYT/Siena: 48% Democrats – 48% Republicans; CNN: 45% Democrats – 47% Republicans; Monmouth: 47% Democrats – 45% Republicans]

TIME OUT: BIG ‘MO’ FOR SALE 

The Atlantic: “Mariano Rivera was never secretive about the grip on his signature pitch. He’d show it to teammates, coaches, even reporters. … When teaching pitchers how it should feel coming out of their hand, however, Rivera could be frustratingly vague. … Even now, nobody can make a fastball move quite like Mo’s. ‘It is as if it dropped straight from the heavens,’ he wrote. … Eleven years after Rivera’s retirement, a wrist brace with claws could strip any last intimation of divinity out of pitching. A pitcher’s fingers slide into its four rubber rings, attached to metal straws that are fastened by a Velcro strap around the wrist. This device, the FlexPro Grip, measures exactly how quickly each of a pitcher’s fingers exert pressure on a ball. But the point of the gadget isn’t just to register finger forces. It’s to transform the art of pitching into a science. … It’s not enough to be blessed with a golden arm. You need to have it work in conjunction with your fingers, too. Only recently, though, has anyone tried to understand exactly how those fingers work in pitching.”

“You seem to put a lot of stock in the concept of how the states line up vis-à-vis the Democrat/Republican divide. For example, you expressed skepticism that Harris would poll better in Georgia while Trump polled better in Pennsylvania because Georgia is more Republican and Pennsylvania is more Democratic. But isn’t it possible that the new demographics of the parties can shake up the lineup? Georgia’s growth in African American and college educated population vs. Pennsylvania’s white working class (union) may mix the stew.”—John Griffin, Moultrie, Georgia

Mr. Griffin,

It is certainly true that states do migrate in their leanings. As a West Virginian, I can certainly attest to that. I started my career covering my home state as a presidential swing state, and it is now one of the most Republican in the nation. In a 28-year journey, one state moved from reliably Democratic to scorchingly Republican. 

Georgia may be on such a journey in the opposite direction, but I think it is unlikely. Georgia is big (the eighth most populous in the nation) but not that fast-growing (only about 1 percent a year). Georgia has long tended to be more politically elastic than its neighbors owing in part to the fact that Atlanta’s metro area so predominates voting. It will be something like 60 percent of the vote there this year. 

Now, it’s certainly possible that if black voters, who make up more than a quarter of Georgia’s electorate, come out in force they can tip the state to Democrats again if, and this is the bigger “if,” suburbanites are still put off by Donald Trump and deny the Republican the kinds of big margins they need in the affluent suburbs to reliably win.

It is also true that Pennsylvania isn’t the “blue wall” it once was, but we should remember that the Keystone State was never as blue as Democrats would have liked. The period between 1992 and 2016 was hardly one of unchecked Democratic dominance. 

But just look at who governs those states now. Pennsylvania has a popular Democratic governor and a divided state legislature, while Georgia has a popular Republican governor and unified GOP control in the statehouse.

Is it possible that Harris would win Georgia and lose Pennsylvania? Sure. But it’s more likely that the same forces that would tip Georgia would also tip Pennsylvania, which has plenty of black voters and lots of college-educated suburbanites, too.

I think of Georgia as the Republicans’ Pennsylvania: A big state they have to win, and should win, but sometimes don’t. 

“Ten bucks says any Democratic jabbering about killing the filibuster will end on or before Election Day. What do you say?”—Michael Smith, Georgetown, Kentucky

Mr. Smith,

If I were answering this a week ago, I might have lost $10. Right you were.

You should email us! Write to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the early and often Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

CUTLINE CONTEST: A LITTLE HOME COOKIN’

I don’t typically favor inside jokes for the Cutline Contest. Part of the premise here is that the gag should be able to stand on its own. So the only defense I can offer for this week’s winner and its potent El Despacho self-reference is that it made me laugh out loud. It’s the weekend before the election and I am living freely:

“A Dispatch gnome does the secret enchantment dance as Jonah’s G-File is processed through the pneumatic tubes.”—Mark Swedberg, Natal, Brazil

Winner, Carb Counters Division:

“The Hi Pro glow proves elusive on a diet of paper.”—Michael Smith, Georgetown, Kentucky

Winner, 2024: A Polling Place Odyssey Division:  

“I’m sorry, Dave.  I’m afraid I can’t do that.”—Patrick O’Rourke, Gainesville, Georgia

Winner, Light at the End of the Tunnel:

“MAGA poll watcher asks Kari Lake how much longer she’s going to be in there swapping out votes.”—Steve Wilson, Batavia, Ohio

Winner, El Fantasma Del Presidente División:

“Poll worker shocked to find Hugo Chavez inside voting machine.”—Linda McKee, DuBois, Pennsylvania

Winner, Greene Acres Division:

“Yow! That space laser beam almost burnt my hand!”—Paul Williams, Shaker Heights, Ohio

PLAYING KETCHUP The Independent: “A woman was left stunned after seeing the so-called mystical glow of a northern lights-style aurora over the skies of southern England. But 56-year-old Dee Harrison’s excitement soon turned to disappointment after realizing the warm magenta-coloured vista was in fact coming from the lights of a nearby tomato farm. … The cleaner posted three photos of her discovery to social media with the caption ‘guess it is the aurora, not seen one before.’ After attracting hundreds of comments, Ms Harrison was told the ‘beautiful’ glare actually came from Suffolk Sweet Tomatoes’ LED light units, which are used to encourage the growth of its stock. … Data from AuroraWatch UK showed there was ‘no significant’ activity in the area on Wednesday morning, with the chance of seeing the lights unlikely. … ‘I parked up and thought I could see what was the aurora borealis. I was a little disappointed to find out it wasn’t as I thought I had it all for myself.’”