As Election Day approaches, Nevada voters appear to be making up their minds in a big way, with a new poll from Strategic Polling & Research (SP&R) suggesting late-stage shifts in both the presidential and Senate races. The poll shows former President Donald Trump holding a notable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, while in the Senate race, Republican challenger Sam Brown edges narrowly ahead of incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen.

In the presidential race, Trump has pulled ahead with 50.2% support, outpacing Harris, who stands at 44.2%. A slim 1.2% of voters remain undecided, with 4.2% choosing not to reveal their preference. The six-point lead could signal a significant trend in a state that has frequently toggled between parties, especially in recent elections.

As the campaigns enter their final days, Trump’s momentum may point to a stronger-than-expected Republican turnout, especially as voters focus on economic concerns, border security, and rising inflation—all key issues in Trump’s Nevada campaign stops.

Today SP&R releases its Nevada poll in the races for both POTUS/US Senate. For President, we show Trump with a 6-point lead (Senate #’s to follow this tweet):

K. Harris: 44.2%
D. Trump: 50.2%
Not Sure: 1.2%
Refuse: 4.2%

Sample Size 400 LV
Field Dates 10/28-10/31
MoE +/-4.9% pic.twitter.com/O7rqtihHwf

— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) November 1, 2024

Turning to the Senate, the SP&R poll reveals a razor-thin margin between the candidates, with Brown leading Rosen 47.0% to 46.2%. The numbers leave a small pool of undecided voters—2%—and 4.2% who refused to state a preference. With less than one percentage point separating Brown and Rosen, the Senate race in Nevada remains one of the nation’s closest. Brown, a military veteran, has framed his campaign around national security and a hardline approach to immigration.

Today SP&R releases its latest Nevada poll in the race for United States Senate showing GOP challenger S. Brown with a .8% lead over incumbent J. Rosen:

J. Rosen: 46.2%
S. Brown: 47.0%
Not Sure: 2%
Other: .5%
Refuse: 4.2%

Sample Size 400 LV
Field Dates 10/28-10/31
MoE: +/-4.9% pic.twitter.com/xAbapwZnsK

— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) November 1, 2024

Nevada has indeed been a reliable bellwether state in most presidential elections. The state has proven challenging to forecast, but these numbers suggest that Republican candidates have gained traction with independent and suburban voters, demographics that often sway the state’s elections, and has emerged as a crucial battleground state in recent U.S. presidential elections.

Historically considered a swing state, Nevada has shown a tendency to vote for the winner in nearly every election since 1912, except for two occasions. In 1976, Nevada voted for Gerald Ford, but Jimmy Carter won the presidency. In 2016, Nevada voted for Hillary Clinton, but Donald Trump won the presidency.

With Election Day just four days away, the campaign trail is heating up. Trump is set to energize supporters with a rally in Warren, Michigan, today, followed by an evening event in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Harris is canvassing the Midwest, with scheduled appearances in Wisconsin before she too heads to Milwaukee for a rally tonight.

(“Tinderbox Economy”; Hedge Fund Manager Warns All Americans)