CNN political analyst David Chalian pointed out that Vice President Kamala Harris’ support among independent voters in Georgia and North Carolina is a “warning sign” ahead of the election.
Republican nominee Donald Trump has a 7-point advantage among independent voters in Georgia, a battleground state where President Joe Biden held a 9-point advantage among this voter bloc in 2020, Chalian said while citing exit polls. The vice president currently holds the same 4-point lead that Biden had among independents in North Carolina, though Biden ultimately lost the state to Trump by 2 points in 2020.
“Among independent voters in our poll, Trump has a 7-point advantage in Georgia,” Chalian said. “In Georgia in 2020, Biden won independent voters by 9 points. So that’s a potential warning sign there for Harris. Black voters in Georgia in our poll, 71 percentage point advantage for Harris, that’s about where Biden was, he was at 77 points in the exit polls in terms of his advantage over Trump … In North Carolina, let’s look at these same groups here. Among independent voters, Harris has a 4-point over Trump in our poll. That’s where Biden was with independent voters in the exit polls in 2020. Remember, he lost North Carolina in 2020 by a narrow margin.”
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Harris’ lead among black voters in North Carolina stands at 59 points, which is substantially lower than Biden’s 85-point lead in 2020, Chalian said. Trump’s lead among non-college educated white voters fell from 59 points in 2020 to 34 points currently.
“This is a huge potential warning sign,” Chalian said. “In the exit polls, Biden won the black vote in North Carolina by 85 percentage points, Harris, this is something she’s gonna want to watch for in the closing days. And then you see the non-college [white voters] here, this is perhaps a little bit of diminishment of support among Trump’s base than he had four years ago.”
Trump has made historic inroads with black and Latino voters, particularly among young men in that demographic, as they have left the Democratic Party in droves.
Trump defeated Biden in North Carolina 50.1% to 48.7% in the 2020 election. The former president holds a 1-point lead in North Carolina by 48% to 47%, according to RealClear polling averages.
Biden narrowly won Georgia 49.5% to 49.3% in 2020, though Trump currently holds a near 3-point advantage in the state against Harris, RealClear polling averages show.
A large majority of voters in North Carolina and Georgia, 95%, said their minds are made up on which candidate they will support, Chalian said. The exit poll found that Harris is leading among early voters 51% to 44% in Georgia and 51% to 45% in North Carolina.
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