These numbers are part of a larger trend. Jewish support for Democrats has declined since 1992, when 80% of Jewish voters supported former President Bill Clinton.

Jewish affiliation with the Democratic Party has lasted for more than a century, anchored by a deep admiration for former President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal policies of social integration and equality of opportunity. But those ideas have largely vanished among Democrats.

Even before the Oct. 7 tragedy in Israel, Democrats had already begun moving away from the Jewish community — and the Jewish community noticed. Many American Jews were already disenchanted by ideas such as affirmative action and diversity, equity, and inclusion, which actively promote a mindset of division and opportunity based on immutable characteristics and not hard work, grit, and perseverance. These ideas are fundamental to leftist candidates such as Kamala Harris and run counter to those of Roosevelt, who helped promote both opportunity and a level playing field. 

Add into the mix the post-Oct. 7 response from the Left, and it is no surprise that large numbers of American Jews simply cannot accept the Democrats’ agenda as the nation heads into the November election. 

And yet, even as the level of support for Democrats is declining, there remains a significant level of Jewish backing for the Democratic Party. Especially in light of recent events at home and abroad, this support is contrary to many traditional Jewish values — ideals that hold the Zionist dream and the existence of Israel as a centerpiece of Jewish heritage and faith. 

The long-standing defensive, economic, and ideological relationship, underpinned by our mutual support of democracy and freedom, between the United States and Israel has been a stable principle for American Jews for decades. This relationship now seems under real threat, given the views and statements of not only the Harris campaign but also the changing demographics of the Democratic Party at large.  

The reality is Democrats, and Harris specifically, are not necessarily aligned on Israel and its national security. This is a real concern for many American Jews because while domestic topics are certainly important to them, so is their support of Israel. The Manhattan Institute poll found that 86% of survey respondents stated they consider themselves supporters of Israel, and 62% of Jews collectively stated they are concerned about antisemitism in the Democratic Party. 

While the interests of American Jewish community are varied and broad (like most Americans), the fact is that since Oct. 7, global issues regarding Israel’s place in the world, maintaining a strong U.S.-Israel relationship, and addressing antisemitism are all now heavily salient issues for American Jews. Instead of leading on these topics, Democrats are instead walking back established, long-term relationships. 

Jesse Arm of the Manhattan Institute noted the new data illustrate that many Jews are “likely uncomfortable with the Democratic Party’s tolerance of voices that criticize Israel in extreme terms, such as labeling the country ‘genocidal.’” Arm added: “This is evidenced by the fact that Jews are almost universally supportive of Israel — a mere 5% of Jewish voters say they are not supporters of the Jewish state.” 

Jews, who often are divided and scattered on policy, are essentially united now on these post-Oct. 7 issues — almost all American Jews are concerned about Israel and the failure of the Democratic Party to take decisive and clear positions that support Israel and counter antisemitic rhetoric and practice.

To that end, the American Jewish community should consider the impact of a Harris presidency on Israel. As vice president, Harris has sent mixed signals on where she stands in terms of Middle East policy. While she has said that she supports Israel’s right to self-defense and would support Israel as president, how she would do this in practice has been unclear. 

Harris has repeatedly and prematurely called for the immediate end of the Israel-Hamas war, regardless of whether Hamas is defeated. She failed to attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to a joint session of Congress this summer.  And Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) recently suggested that a “President Harris” would be anything but a supporter of Israel’s right to self-defense. According to Sanders, Harris “will be open” to his proposed Israel weapons ban. 

Indeed, Harris’s priorities became clear during a recent campaign stop, when a protester interrupted her and yelled, “What about Israel’s genocide? Nineteen thousand children are dead.” Harris responded with, “What he’s talking about, it’s real, and I respect his voice.” Despite her attempts to walk back these comments, Harris’s answer suggests she will not support Israel with the same unwavering commitment as previous American presidents on both sides of the aisle.

Aside from concerns about a Harris presidency, there is a demographic problem for supporters of Israel as well: college students. These students are entering the electorate with significant sway over the future direction of the Democratic Party and the 2024 election. They are among the most vocal, engaged, and organized members of the large Generation Z. Significant numbers of these students hold negative views toward Israel.

Many Americans will remember the anti-Israel protests, encampments, and violence on campuses nationwide this past year as the nation fights for its survival. Survey data from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression confirm there is very little support for Israel among Democratic-identifying undergraduates. When asked about where their sympathies lie in light of the 2023 outbreak of violence in the Middle East (the Israelis or the Palestinians), just 5% of Democratic students support the Israelis, while 55% support the Palestinians. Just 15% said they support both equally. 

In contrast, among Republican students, 27% support the Israelis, while 12% favor the Palestinians, and 18% support both equally. 

These data should give American Jews real pause. Democratic students hold positions that are at odds with the views of many Jews, and these voices are dominant and well-organized among students on campus. There is no question that they will be powerful political actors in the years to come and that they hold little support for Israel.

The Manhattan Institute poll adds to the increasing body of evidence that support for the Democratic Party and its candidates among American Jews has declined in recent years. The decline tracks with Democratic policies and attitudes toward Israel — particularly since Oct.7. These American Jews must wake up to the reality that the historic and principled loyalty toward Israel from the U.S. is no longer assured. Those in the Democratic Party itself, from its highest leaders to its future base, have revealed that their commitment to Israel is tenuous and they are not consistently in line with the American Jewish community.

The clear lack of loyalty toward Israel and the disturbingly minimal support American Jews have received in the face of so much violence and antisemitism should be sufficient evidence to end the long-standing Jewish relationship with the Democratic Party.  

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Samuel J. Abrams is a professor of politics at Sarah Lawrence College and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.