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Many people in the United States do not vote in presidential elections because they feel their vote does not matter and staying home is a better use of their time. That’s not true for Republicans, even if you live in a deep blue state such as Massachusetts, New York, or California.
If you go out and vote, Trump might not win the electoral votes in your state, but you could help him win the national popular vote.
The polls are showing us that Trump could win the national popular vote in 2024, which would help kill the Democratic conversation about abolishing the Electoral College. Democrats have won the national popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, including two where their nominee lost the election because of our voting system: Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump is a slight favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, according to FiveThirtyEight. As of Monday, the election forecaster said he has a 54% chance of winning, while Vice President Kamala Harris has a 45% chance.
Trump could win the election without the national popular vote, like in 2016, but he is only 1.4 points behind Harris in the national polling average, according to FiveThirtyEight. Meanwhile, he had a 0.1-point national popular vote lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average as of Monday. Given the margin of error in polling and Trump’s advantage in RealClearPolitics‘s polling, if all goes well, this could be the first election where Trump wins the national popular vote and the Electoral College.
Democratic politicians like to change election rules when they think it gives them an advantage. That explains why they want to count mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania received three days after the election, lower the voting age to 16 years old, let non-citizens vote in municipal elections, offer citizenship to illegal immigrants, and give statehood to Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. It’s also why they started pushing the “abolish the Electoral College” mantra harder after Trump won the 2016 presidential election despite getting about 3 million fewer votes than Clinton.
Democrats generally oppose a popular and commonsense proposal, voter ID, for a similar reason. They think black Americans, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic, don’t know how to obtain an ID, and therefore, the proposal benefits Republicans. That’s why liberal advocacy groups unsuccessfully fought to stop voter ID from passing via referendum and being implemented in North Carolina, a battleground state.
If Democrats see no political advantage in abolishing the Electoral College, the conversation will quickly disappear. Those unhappy with the Biden-Harris administration, be it farmers, Arab Americans, young white men like me, or anyone else who thinks our country deserves better, can make that happen, even if Harris overwhelmingly wins our respective states.
Additionally, people’s votes can make a difference in tight downballot races and referenda. Occasionally, state legislative races come down to one vote, even in Massachusetts.
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A Republican national popular vote victory may also send liberal politicians a message that their platform is less popular than they might think, forcing them to listen to ordinary people. Perhaps it will help liberals understand that Americans dislike weak borders, men in female sports, and inflation-inducing spending.
Let’s send liberals a clear rejection of their agenda. They deserve it after this lousy Biden administration.
Tom Joyce (@TomJoyceSports) is a political reporter for the New Boston Post in Massachusetts.
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