Radio personality Michael Graham told journalist Mark Halperin Monday that he will “not be stunned” if Republican nominee Donald Trump narrowly wins New Hampshire in the 2024 election.

Graham cited a New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll from Sunday finding Trump with a 50.2% to 49.8% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in New Hampshire, saying that the state could be a hit or miss for the former president. Graham said on Halperin’s “The Morning Meeting” that New Hampshire is the one state in New England that may fare positively for Republicans, as enough voters may turn out in the state to vote for Trump.

“Believe it or not, in a state the Democrats have carried 7 of the last 8 times, the Granite State, Donald Trump has a massive 50.2% to 49.8% lead… A month ago, the polling, Saint Ann’s and some and others had Trump losing by about 6.5 [points], and then last Thursday, Emerson came out and Trump was at 50%-47%, losing by 3 [within] margin of error, Graham said, citing the poll. “And then I of course, everyday, tune in go ‘The Morning Meeting’ and I heard Sean’s [Spicer] reporting and I got then umbers and I was stunned.”

Graham further said that “subterranean” issues, including whether to permit transgender athletes in women’s sports, is having a major effect on voters in New Hampshire and may help Trump in November.

“I think the two things that are moving in these purple-y states, the big one is Kamala Harris is failing the audition, or the job,” Graham said. “She’s just failing. And I think the other one is, you guys have picked up on these subterranean issues that are having effects that people aren’t looking at like these fights over trans issues, guys and girls sports, New Hampshire has been ground zero for that…. If you said Trump’s gonna lose New Hampshire by ten [points], I would not be stunned. If you told me Trump was gonna win New Hampshire by 1 [point], I would not be stunned.”

Former Trump-era White House press secretary Sean Spicer said he has talked to many New Englanders who had not previously supported Trump are now backing the former president because they are “pissed off” by the status quo.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte is leading her Democratic opponent Joyce Craig 51.9% to 48.1%, according to the New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll. The poll surveyed 622 registered voters in New Hampshire between October 24-26 with a 3.93% margin of error.

A Republican presidential nominee has not won New Hampshire in a general election since former President George H.W. Bush secured a victory in 1988. Former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton narrowly beat Trump in New Hampshire 46.8% to 46.5%, while President Joe Biden won by a 7-point margin, 52.7% to 45.4%, against the former president.