Then, on May 23, a week before his conviction, he held a rally in the South Bronx. It was big — estimates ranged from 8,000 to 10,000 people, while Trump said it was 25,000. “We had 25,000 people in the South Bronx,” Trump told me during a talk in June. “That crowd was incredible.” Then he added: “I’m going to Madison Square Garden, too.”

The plan, in its early stages, was still under wraps, aides insisted. But now it is happening. Trump, the native New Yorker, born and raised in Queens, moved to Manhattan to make it big, is holding a rally Sunday evening in the heart of his hometown, which also just happens to be the heart of political opposition to Donald Trump. For Trump, going into deep-blue Manhattan is going into political enemy territory that also happens to be his home.

In 2020, Trump lost Manhattan to Joe Biden with 14.5% of the vote to Biden’s 84.5%. Trump’s 14.5% was actually an improvement over 2016, when he won just 10% of the vote in Manhattan, to Hillary Clinton’s 86%.

Trump will likely do better this time, but he is not going to win New York. Other states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina — are the key to victory. They need all the candidate attention they can get. So why is Trump spending precious candidate time in the final days of the campaign going to Madison Square Garden? There are obvious emotional reasons for a Queens native for whom success in Manhattan was the pinnacle of achievement. But there are political reasons, too. 

I asked Trump pollster John McLaughlin to explain the reasoning behind the rally. The answer is that even though Trump will be speaking in New York, he won’t be speaking only to New York. He’ll be on the biggest stage in the world, and people in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and beyond will hear what he has to say. If you can make big news in New York — and the very fact of Trump’s rally is big news — the swing states will surely hear about it. Here is how McLaughlin explained it:

When President Trump takes the stage at Madison Square Garden, he’s not just speaking to New Yorkers, he’s speaking to the nation. This is America’s most famous arena. It’s been the stage for presidents and champions. Sure it’s in so-called deep blue New York and the media capital of the world. What better forum for President Trump to begin his closing argument in a neck-and-neck contest for the future of America and the world? We will be in the final nine days of the most important election since Abraham Lincoln was reelected in 1864. Only President Trump can command this moment in history. Only President Trump can make his case to restore America to peace and prosperity. Americans want an end to high inflation, high taxes, open borders, high crime, and to stop the endless wars. President Trump will speak directly to the voters in the most important political rally he has ever held. It’s a great way to begin the final week of this historic election for change.

What better forum? That’s the reason Trump is playing Madison Square Garden. It was an idea hatched during his enforced residency in his hometown for a trial that many viewed as unfair and politically motivated, which ended with his conviction on 34 felony counts. At that moment, it was unclear what lay ahead for his campaign. As it turned out, the campaign rolled on, almost entirely unaffected by the verdict. Now, it is rolling into Manhattan.