Georgians vote Saturday in an election that many see as pivotal for the former Soviet republic. Either it will take the path of a pro-Western democracy or it will slide back into Russian-style autocracy.  The parliamentary vote, one that many Georgians say is the most important in their lives, comes as President Putin seeks to rebuild the Russian empire, methodically pulling neighboring nations back into Moscow’s orbit.

Across the Black Sea, pro-Russian parties are gaining support in Bulgaria. Slightly to the north, a huge Russian vote-buying campaign in Moldova nearly prevailed last week. In a referendum on joining the European Union, pro-Europe forces eventually prevailed, winning 50.5 percent of votes.

A mountainous country in the Caucasus, Georgia has only one-third the population and half the size of the American state of the same name. However, for Europe, the nation punches above its weight as the only non-Russian bridge between gas-rich Central Asia and the Black Sea. 

Saturday’s election “presents the Kremlin opportunities to derail Georgia’s long-term Euro-Atlantic integration efforts and reestablish Russian influence over Georgia,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War warned this week.

In Saturday’s vote, the Georgian Dream party is determined to cling to power, fighting for its fourth, four-year term. The party is run by the nation’s richest man, Bidzina Ivanishvili. This billionaire made his money in Russia in the 1990s. 

Two years ago, after Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Ivanishvili tacked hard right. He argued that Georgia can only survive by getting along with its massive northern neighbor. Russia was the colonial ruler of Georgia for two centuries, ending with Georgia’s independence in 1991.

In 2008, a war between Russia and Georgia left 20 percent of Georgia occupied by Russian troops. In one potential chokehold, Russian soldiers are based only 500 yards from the main highway connecting the capital, Tbilisi, and the Black Sea.

Last June, the Georgian Dream party pushed through a Russia-style “foreign influence” law. This requires non governmental groups receiving more than 20 percent of their funds from overseas to register as “foreign agents.”  Last month, Mr. Ivanishvili proposed that the new government “apologize” to Moscow for provoking Russia’s 2008 invasion.

On Wednesday, at a huge campaign closing rally, he vowed to close down opposition parties and jail “enemies of the people” for “war crimes,” presumably for standing up to the Russian invasion. Two weeks ago, with strong support of the Georgian Orthodox Church, the government passed a law banning gay “propaganda” and same-sex marriage.

As in Moldova, Russia’s carnage in Ukraine hangs over voters’ minds. Mr. Ivanishvili accuses the opposition of being controlled by a “Global War Party.” “No to War — No to Agents!” proclaims a  billboard showing an invisible master controlling six leashed leaders of the opposition 

This group includes Mikhail Saakashvili. Once the free market darling of American conservatives, Mr. Saakashvili now sits in a jail in Tbilisi, halfway through a 6-year sentence for “abuse of power” while he was President. 

“Say no to war — choose peace,” beckon other billboards, which monopolize Tbilisi’s most prestigious locations. Colorful images of Georgian villages contrast with black and white images of Ukrainian cities ruined by the war. Mr. Ivanishvili can easily bankroll the ad campaign. In a country with a GNP of $32 billion, Bloomberg estimates his personal fortune at $7.5 billion. 

Georgia’s opposition lampoons Georgian Dream as the “Russian Dream” party. They warn that Saturday’s vote may be the last chance to get Georgia back on track to joining the European Union.

Last December, the European Union extended to Georgia candidate member status. However, after hundreds of thousands of young Georgians protested the “foreign agent” bill, the EU suspended talks. In August, America suspended $95 million in aid. Two weeks ago, Britain suspended security talks. If Saturday’s vote is not free and fair, the EU threatens to suspend visa-free travel status for Georgians, a privilege enjoyed  since 2017.

“In Georgia there is a clear democratic backsliding. The next election will be the moment of truth and the Georgian people will have to decide which way they want to go: towards Europe or getting away from Europe,” the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said last week. “It is the future of the country which is at stake.” Polls indicate that 80 percent of Georgians want their country to join the European Union. About 50,000 Georgian citizens live in the EU. 

Since independence in 1991, Georgia enjoyed multiparty elections that were generally fair, although marred by fraud and voter intimidation. On Saturday, though, opposition parties will be sending observers to the nation’s 3,000 polling stations. 

However, they worry that Georgian Dream loyalists control key levers — police, judiciary and the election commission. On Thursday, police raided the Tbilisi homes of two local employees of the Atlantic Council, the Washington-based think tank.

Opposition leaders cite the case of Belarus where a fraudulent vote in 2020 was trampled by heavy police repression. With Moscow’s support, Alexander Lukashenko stayed in power. Belarus became a Russian satellite state.

Polls indicate that Georgian Dream is the nation’s most popular party, expected to win about 40 percent in a fair vote. The opposition is divided among four smaller parties. Their leaders predict that they will win the largest combined vote total, allowing them to form a parliamentary coalition government.

There is a potential handicap for the opposition: if a party does not win more than 5 percent of the national vote, it will not get any seats in the 150-member, unicameral Parliament. In the event of victory, opposition leaders signed a “Georgian Charter.” They promise to form a technocratic government dedicated to restoring good relations with the West and repealing authoritarian laws passed since June. 

Watching closely from Moscow,  Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service director, Sergei Naryshkin, said earlier this month he is confident Georgians will make the “correct” choice and vote for “healthy, nationally-oriented forces.” Signaling that the government should brace itself for post-election protests,  he warned that if the opposition loses, Washington plans a “Tbilisi Maidan ” — a Ukrainian-style street revolution.