Former President Donald Trump is making a play for a state President Joe Biden won by ten points in 2024. All eyes should be on Virginia on Nov. 5.

In 2023, political pundits told voters to look to Virginia as a bellwether for what would come in the 2024 election. One year after Biden won the state, Republicans swept all three executive branch races statewide and narrowly won the House of Delegates in 2021, while Democrats remained in control of the state Senate.

And Republicans have officially taken back the House of Delegates in Virginia, cementing a 52-48 majority in the chamber.

A Republican Governor, a Republican Lieutenant Governor, a Republican Attorney General, & a Republican House of Delegates. January 15th will be here soon! https://t.co/4zEIOwWqfl

— Will DiBugno (@DCLongIslander) December 3, 2021

Democrats in the state ran heavily on preventing Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and state Republicans from passing an abortion ban into law. Something Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said would show voters trust Democrats more on this issue. (Harris’ Advocates Are Crushing Her Only Winnable Narrative)

“I think if Republicans have a good night, that’s a message that you’ll hear from Republicans in other parts of the country,” said Kondik, according to Spectrum News. “If they don’t, I think it’ll reinforce the idea that Dems have an advantage on the abortion issue.”

.@KamalaHarris said four days ago: “What happens in #Virginia will in large part determine what happens in 2022, 2024, and on.”

🔴 Republican @GlennYoungkin has won Virginia Governor race #VirginiaElection pic.twitter.com/VJ8xemrYb4

— VOZ (@Voz_US) November 3, 2021

The political pendulum did swing back to Democrats in 2023 when they regained control of the House of Delegates and held their majority in the state Senate. Their fearmongering on abortion was key to their victory.

Virginia Democrats’ messaging on this issue is similar to what Vice President Kamala Harris is running on in 2024. While Trump is attempting to make the election about the economy, inflation and illegal immigration, Harris wants this to be an abortion referendum. Her results in Virginia could forecast how voters in swing states rank these issues.

Harris flaunts her “credentials” in support of unrestricted abortion on demand as a fundamental right. https://t.co/juSwjIuwFE

— Joseph Boot (@DrJoeBoot) October 24, 2024

Virginia is one of six states (Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia) where polls close at 7:00 pm EST. These states will have the earliest election results available besides Indiana and Kentucky. While Georgia is a swing state to pay close attention to, the state has three days after election day to count the around 21,000 overseas ballots expected to be cast. (ROOKE: Epstein World Goes All In For Kamala Harris)

Harris is holding a 6.2-point lead in Virginia at the time of writing, according to the 538 polling averages. Again, Biden won this state by ten points in 2020. Despite the polling disadvantage, the Trump campaign believes he can win and is using Youngkin’s 2021 playbook, hoping it will push him over the line. Jeff Ryer, Virginia Trump campaign spokesman, told the Daily Caller that Youngkin would be at several rallies for Trump as part of the campaign’s get-out-the-vote effort (Trump Force 47) in Virginia.

.@HungCao_VA breaks Virginia down by county for @ClayTravis and @BuckSexton: “If we can move Northern Virginia enough, we’ve already won this race.”https://t.co/6MOjEcu1QN pic.twitter.com/OPaBQkvNpI

— The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show (@clayandbuck) October 23, 2024

“As the campaign goes further on and we get into the early vote rallies and to get-out-the-vote events, the governor is going to be pivoting not just to making the case for us, but also bringing all those [get-out-the-vote] volunteers together in a coordinated effort in the different parts of the state,” Ryer said.

Governor @GlennYoungkin Republicans getting to the polls to vote early:

“We’ve been pushing early voting so hard since 2021, and I won, and we’ve seen Republicans get so much more comfortable and enthusiastic about voting early.” pic.twitter.com/gQYCip48cn

— Team Youngkin – Spirit of Virginia (@TeamYoungkin) October 23, 2024

Trump praised RNC co-chair Lara Trump in an X post Thursday, announcing that she will join Youngkin at a Virginia rally Saturday. He noted that early voting results look “tremendous” for Republicans, hinting that he might be joining Lara Trump and Youngkin. (ROOKE: In Fewer Than 10 Words, Brian Stelter Lays Bare Democrats’ White Liberal Ignorance Problem)

“Lara Trump, our incredibly smart and talented Republican National Committee Co-Chair who did a fantastic job this week on the “Breakfast Club” program, will be joining Governor Glenn Youngkin at a rally in the Commonwealth of Virginia this Saturday to encourage everyone to VOTE EARLY,” Trump posted. “Glenn has given the people of Virginia great confidence their vote will be SECURE and ONLY ALL LEGAL VOTES WILL BE COUNTED. In fact, Virginia early vote is looking tremendous enough for the GOP that perhaps Lara is not the only TRUMP you will see in the Commonwealth before Election Day. Stay tuned!”

Trump is making a run at Virginia.

To do so, the state’s party chair told @DailyCaller that they’ve recruited thousands of volunteers to help with their get out the vote operation modeled after Youngkin’s 2021 run. https://t.co/OfObSTTrrL https://t.co/rbBM85Lg8X pic.twitter.com/M4I4Hk7lcw

— Reagan Reese (@reaganreese_) October 25, 2024

Virginia’s early voting data shows that almost 51% of Democrats have returned their ballots or voted in person so far. Republicans are not far behind, with 42% doing the same. Democrats currently hold a 113,000-vote early vote lead over Republicans in Virginia. While there are around one million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, there are more than one million unaffiliated registered voters. It’s these unaffiliated voters that Republicans hope to pick up.

VA Voted Early or Absentee as of 10/22/24 1,073,964
Dem 52%/ NP 6.4%/ Rep 41.6%
18-29 7.6%/ 30-39 6.7%/ 40-49 9.2%/ 50-64 27%/ 65+ 49%
Asian 3.4%/ European 68.7%/ Hispanic 3.7%/ Afam 12.6%

VA is a MODELED PARTY AFFILIATION STATE – Follow L2-data for https://t.co/nCqzDX9m7J pic.twitter.com/213WxWQHZL

— L2 Data (@L2political) October 22, 2024

If Trump can win Virginia on election night with his focus on the economy, inflation and illegal immigration, it could spell doom for Harris in states like Georgia and North Carolina, which are must-wins for her. It would show that running on abortion was not enough. All eyes will be on Virginia on Nov. 5.