An expert has sounded the alarm over the future of Taiwan, claiming its sovereignty is hanging in the balance as the US gears up for its next presidential elections.

With the fear that regional tensions could bubble over into large-scale conflict, Taiwan has already shown military strength with live exercises in Penghu Island late Thursday, reflecting the ongoing struggle against Chinese territorial assertion. Professor Astrid H. M. Nordin, Chair of Chinese International Relations at King's College London's Lau China Institute, spoke to the Mirror about the significance of the latest military drills and political moves across the Taiwan Strait.

She warned: "A lot of Taiwan's capacity to resist hinges on what other states do, most notably the USA. The upcoming US elections will make a big difference to the likelihood that Taiwan can withstand continued and escalating pressure from the mainland to be incorporated into the PRC."

She noted how Taipei's ties with Trump were once favourable, but observed a change in his stance post-presidency, with him questioning the US' commitment to Taiwan's defence and criticising it for eroding America's lead in semiconductor manufacturing.

Trump has steered the Republican Party towards a more isolationist stance. A survey after his first term showed that Taiwan was the only region in the Indo-Pacific with a preference for Trump over Biden in the 2020 election.

However, Trump's intensification of foreign policy rhetoric reversed this sentiment.

On Thursday, Trump claimed that China's leader would treat Vice President Kamala Harris "like a baby" if she were to become president, as he and his allies have increasingly sought to belittle the Democratic candidate.

"He'd take all the candy away very quickly," Trump added. "She wouldn't have any idea what happened. It would be like a grand chess master playing a beginner."

This week, China conducted live-fire exercises off the coast of Fujian province, facing Taiwan, following a large air-and-sea drill described as retribution for Taiwan's president dismissing Beijing's sovereignty claims.

The drills took place near the Pingtan islands, as per an announcement from the Maritime Safety Administration, which advised ships to steer clear of the area without providing further details. Taiwan's Defense Minister Wellington Koo stated on Wednesday that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would constitute an act of war.

Despite the escalating tension, Professor Nordin has offered a glimmer of hope, suggesting that open warfare isn't a foregone conclusion. She said: "There are many coercive things that the PRC can do without resorting to an invasion. An invasion is not the preferred method for Xi Jinping to get the incorporation of Taiwan into the PRC that he wants. I suspect that he will try all other available means first."

Professor Nordin also downplayed the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used in any potential conflict between China and Taiwan. She said: "Very unlikely," given the close proximity of Taiwan to mainland China.

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