As a Republican who's been in media and politics for the last 30 years, I'm certainly no stranger to October surprises. Whether it was the 2000 George W. Bush DUI late hit, or in 2004, the Texas National Guard nonsense that CBS' Dan Rather still believes is true to this day, attempts to change the narrative at the last moment are as predictable as a Stuart Stevens anti-Trump tweet. In 2012, Mitt Romney ran into Hurricane Sandy and CNN's Candy Crowley. In 2016, Russia, Russia, Russia and the Access Hollywood tape almost derailed Donald Trump's successful presidential run. And in 2020, Hunter Biden's laptop was the October surprise, or would have been if regime media didn't intervene to kill the story. 

So far, October, 2024 has been relatively quiet in the surprise department...until Tuesday. Never Trumpers and the D.C. establishment ginned up a piece in the Atlantic accusing Donald Trump of complaining about the burial costs of a U.S. service member, allegedly, according to unnamed sources and confirmed by former Chief of Staff John Kelly, of calling that service person a blankety-blank identity group. Never Trump, Inc. is trying desperately to make America care about this story, accepting it as the Gospel truth. The problem, or problems, are several accounts on record from people in the room where this statement allegedly was made that claim it's just not true. Furthermore, these first-hand denial accounts told the Atlantic reporters their story's premise just wasn't true. In the Atlantic story, the account of those denying the story are misrepresented. In addition, family of the fallen service member isn't pleased that this story has come up, either, and has asked The Atlantic not to politicize this. The story, quite frankly, is a mess.  

John Kelly is a very-respected soldier and gold star dad. I will not take anything away from his service and sacrifice to this country. But he, along with scads of former Republican operatives in D.C., simply broke after coming into contact with Donald Trump. I don't think "Remember John Kelly" is going to be what gets Kamala Harris over the finish line in two weeks. Harris has to offer a reason to vote for her, something no one, including Kamala, seems capable of doing. Short of that, the closing message of really, really hating Trump is not only not working, it's actually getting old and tired as a tactic with American voters.

Barack Obama hit the campaign trail, being that Kamala Harris was too busy preparing for an interview with Hallie Jackson on MSNBC. The former President was in Madison, Wisconsin, and lamented the fractured nature of the country. 

He has no idea how we got to this place. The rhetorical arsonist has no idea why half the country is on fire. Obama ran for president in 2008 in a very contested primary with Hillary Clinton, and complained about his lackluster support in rural Pennsylvania by claiming they're bitter people clinging to their guns and religion. But today, he cannot fathom why this country has become divided. 

Clinton, whom Obama beat in that primary, would become the nominee herself in 2016, and closed out her campaign referring to half the country supporting Donald Trump as a basket of deplorables. 

In 2020, the anti-Trump sentiment was a successful campaign strategy, because Donald Trump was 17.7% behind Joe Biden in personal favorability. Trump generated 74.3 million votes for him, but he also generated 81 million votes against him precisely due to that unfavorability. That driving force of voter turnout against the former President just does not exist in the same intensity this cycle. Real Clear Politics' favorability average shows a lead for Kamala Harris, but only around 5 points, and that's falling. In Gallups recent polls, Kamala's advantage isn't just shrinking, it's reversed and now shows a Trump two-point edge.

#NEW NATIONAL poll - favorable/unfavorable rating

🔴 Trump: 50%-48% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 48%-50% (-2)

*First election Trump has entered with a positive favorability rating

Gallup | 10/22 pic.twitter.com/AxAmwWgrcA

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 22, 2024

President Joe Biden, who I'm reliably told is actually still the president for a few more months, was deployed to "help" Kamala Harris by going to New Hampshire. Why is this so funny? Because Joe Biden, when he was running for re-election earlier this year, was so afraid of his reception in New Hampshire that he got the Democratic Party to disqualify New Hampshire's delegates. He didn't want to begin his reelection bid in the first in the nation primary with a loss. So the party changed the rules and made South Carolina, a state he runs much stronger in, to leapfrog ahead of the Granite State. He wasn't popular in New Hampshire then, and he's certainly no better now. so naturally, Team Harris figured two weeks in front of the election was the perfect time to dispatch Joe to shore up sagging support for Kamala. 

We have to lock Trump up, Biden says, after being heckled, *checks notes*, in a Harris campaign field office. While regime media has the vapors about the second coming of Donald Trump as president and how he's going to be a dictator, arresting and jailing his political opponents, Joe Biden, the actual current president, is openly calling for imprisoning his former opposition. Even Kamala Harris at rallies blanches and tries to stop rally attendees from lapsing into "Lock him up" chants. This is not what Harris wants to be their closing message.

James Carville, the Bill Clinton campaign guru from 1992, was on MSNBC this week with Ari Melber, terrified that if elected, Trump will lock James up. He'll lock MSNBC host Ari Melber up. 

🤡🌎🌍🌏🤡

Clinton Strategist James Carville Claims Trump Will Arrest ‘Males of Color’ If Elected, Calls for Armed Uprising If Harris Loses

“I say the Constitution is at stake.”https://t.co/rLU4M0QGJE pic.twitter.com/nOAEciGA2N

— Earl Jackson (@earljackson1776) October 23, 2024

That message doesn't seem to resonate as effectively after Biden himself says this is the precise course of action that needs to take place against Donald Trump.

Tim Walz, the vice-presidential nominee for the Democrats, was in front of a larger audience in Madison, Wisconsin, but only because Barack Obama was the headliner. The number two on the ballot this time only got a few moments before yielding the stage to a man who last was on the ballot 12 years ago. In his brief time on stage, here's on whom he focused his rhetorical fire. 

In terms of the psychological art of projection, projecting your own sins upon those of your opponent, this bit was equivalent to an IMAX film. Tim "Helicopter Hands" Walz is attacking Elon Musk, a man whom *again, checks notes* is not running for political office. And as for the charge itself, this is the guy complaining.

“Jumping around, skipping like a dipshit” featuring Tampon Tim Walz: pic.twitter.com/vwpedNAZsU

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 22, 2024

 Here's another nugget from Walz last night. 

Stamina, he said, the same guy who Sunday said this in church.

The Lili von Shtupp closing argument isn't quite as convincing without Madeline Kahn singing it in Blazing Saddles, and Tim Walz certainly isn't as easy on the eyes. But what is laugh out loud funny about the claim that Trump doesn't have stamina is Walz said this on a day that Kamala Harris took off from the campaign trail in order to prepare for an pre-recorded television interview on MSNBC. Trump, meanwhile, spoke to Latinos in Doral, Florida before going to North Carolina for a rally last night. He's in Arizona today at another rally. There are no days off for Donald Trump for the foreseeable future, as he himself noted. 

One more note on the stamina charge Walz thinks is going to stick with undecided voters down the stretch. For the last couple months, we've been gaslit by regime media that the hologram distress call from Princess Kamala to Obi-Wan Rogan would soon be answered, and the Joe Rogan podcast that would drag Kamala Harris across the finish line was right around the corner. 

Except it never happened. Instead, Donald Trump, the candidate with no stamina, will be in Rogan's Austin, Texas studio on Friday for an episode that will be downloaded millions of times. Trump began the week at a McDonald's, beating Harris to the punch for a chance to change the narrative and humanize her. Five days later, he's co-opting what she thought would end up being her best chance to close out the campaign strong. 

Chris Cillizza of CNN is not just depressed, but downright fearful at how disliked and distrusted his profession of media has become with the American public. And that fear and loathing of the media is not a partisan thing, either. Neither side of the political aisle has much respect for the 4th Estate these days. 

Devastating.

And a massive problem for a healthy democracy. pic.twitter.com/92uEG90DPB

— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) October 22, 2024

I have often joined the chorus on the right in saying that no matter how much you hate the media, it's not nearly enough. I despise what regime media has become, and I'm in media. But I've never shot anyone in media, which sets me apart from Lucas Kunce, the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Missouri against incumbent Josh Hawley. 

🤡🌎🌍🌏🤡

Clinton Strategist James Carville Claims Trump Will Arrest ‘Males of Color’ If Elected, Calls for Armed Uprising If Harris Loses

“I say the Constitution is at stake.”https://t.co/rLU4M0QGJE pic.twitter.com/nOAEciGA2N

— Earl Jackson (@earljackson1776) October 23, 2024

According to the story, Kunce and ex-Congressman and Never Trumper Adam Kinzinger decided to go to a makeshift shooting range for a photo op to show what a pro-gun Democrat could look like. Fawning media was in tow. Kunce used an AR-15 to assault a steel plate about 30 feet away from him with a scope. I'm no gun nut, but i'm pretty sure i could hit a steel plate 30 feet away with a Nerf gun. 

Hitting a steel target that close with that kind of firepower goes against all safety norms, because of course, the law of physics would indicate that there's going to be a ricochet, or at least uncontrolled shrapnel flying around. Added to the mix is that on the table from which they shot behind were containers of tannerite. You know, explosives. What could have been an absolute disaster had hot shrapnel landed in one of those jars, literally blowing up Kinzinger, the Senate nominee, and the group of spectators and reporters, ended up winging one of the reporters in the arm. Yes, Republicans loathe reporters. But Democrats are accidentally shooting them. Josh Hawley, who never was in harm's way, physically or electorally, reacted on X this way.

I condemn all acts of violence against reporters and call on Kunce never to shoot another one 😂😂😂

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) October 23, 2024

Will Kamala condemn the gun violence by Kunce and Kinzinger?

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) October 23, 2024

I know the Kunce campaign needed a shot in the arm, but this is taking it a little far …

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) October 23, 2024

And finally, Hawley invoked Grandma.

My grandma is a better shot than Lucas Kunce pic.twitter.com/rSjnBTlWeh

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) October 23, 2024

The ratio online from the gun community has been nothing short of spectacular. And speaking of Democrats' not liking media, MSNBC's Alex Wagner sat down in Philadelphia with a group of Black voters, both male and female, to get a sense for why their support of Kamala Harris is softer than normal, and why. You'd think if Kamala had a chance, they would have scuttled this report. But it actually aired.

This can't have pleased Harris-Walz headquarters in Delaware. But it got worse. If you think Black men don't like Kamala, wait until you hear what Black women think.

Note that all of this was talked about in media in the absence of Kamala Harris from the campaign trail. She had no morning speech. No rallies. No photo ops. Why? She was prepping for an interview on NBC with Hallie Jackson. It aired Tuesday night. It went about as well as all of her other disastrous interviews in the last couple weeks. Here's just a sample. 

I'm a woman, followed by the nervous cackle laughter, which precedes one of several non-answers she would give. On the question of why Harris is underperforming with men of all racial backgrounds, here was her response.

Her answer is 'I have men and women at my rallies'? That's why she's underperforming with men? She left the campaign trail to study up and murderboard for this interview, and that's the best answer that came out of Harris group-think? 

Ah, finally a substantive policy answer. Kamala Harris' policy is apparently that your 1st Amendment right to freedom of religion is gone if it applies to abortion. Catholics have no right to religious exemption from abortion laws or rules. The Supreme Court can go pound sand. The Constitution has just been amended by way of Kamala Harris rhetorical fiat. And remember, we're told that Donald Trump is the threat to democracy. 

Harris was asked about taxpayer money for gender reassignment surgeries and therapy. She uncomfortably dodged what you know she fully supports. 

Even Jackson, a Democrat, couldn't help but press Harris for not answering. Kamala's second at-bat was worse than the first.

It wouldn't be the first exchange that Jackson felt it necessary to redirect. On the subject of what would be different than Biden in a Harris administration, a question that has been asked for two weeks and not answered in a satisfactory manner as of yet, Kamala offered this.

Mine will not be a continuation of the Biden administration, but also, I will not tell you what that difference would look like. 

No Kamala Harris appearance would be complete without a patented word salad.

Your guess is as good as mine. Jackson asked Harris why her economic message wasn't resonating. 

Michigan. She forgot Michigan. Then again, I guess that's understandable. A lot of Arab-American Michiganders have basically said, "Forget you" to Kamala. She's just returning the favor. 

The most ominous part of the interview. This is why this election can't wind up being that close. Personally, looking at all the early voting data pouring in, along with the polling trends continuing to move in Donald Trump's direction, I don't believe this election will be nearly as close as 2020. If it is, Team Harris is ready to sue her into the Oval Office. Election denialism will be patriotic once again.

Harris was asked in a closing question about when she knew Biden was in mental decline, and why she hid it as long as she did. It's another question Harris should expect every time she sits down with a journalist, but she reacted with her standard deer in the headlights look. 

Again, another unsatisfactory non-answer, and even Jackson couldn't let it pass without pressing. Like the exchange on gender reassignment, and like most cinema, the sequel didn't pan out as good as the original.

She maintains to this day that Joe Biden is perfectly fine. She has no earthly idea why he made the decision he did. This, of course, is an untenable position. The entire country knows both that Joe Biden is a shell of what he once was, and that Kamala Harris has been lying about it for four years. There is no believable alternative. 

Before she made it back to her plane, Donald Trump had this ad up. 

13 days to go, and Kamala wasted another one. She can't afford to lose any more daily news cycles, but the reality with her campaign is that everyone in the Harris-Walz boat is not rowing together. They're whacking each other with oars. In some cases, they're accidentally shooting other people in the boat. It's a campaign of chaos, flailing around looking for something, anything that will stick. Bruce Springsteen has been signed on to do a concert in Philly. This kind of stunt, of course, is nothing new. What is new is the hope Team Harris is attaching to it.

A Harris campaign official said it hopes the events will “capture grassroots” enthusiasm.https://t.co/EeXzfivtgt

— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) October 22, 2024

And that is the takeaway from the Democrats' Tuesday. After campaigning all summer and fall, Kamala Harris still hasn't captured the grassroots, and they are running out of time and options. Hope is their strategy. Nothing else is working.