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The Kamala Harris campaign struggles to make inroads with usually-reliable Democratic voting blocs. The cash bettors continue to back a Trump victory. And news that the former president will appear on Joe Rogan’s podcast sets tongues wagging. With just 12 days to go before the election, Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We update this page daily, so please bookmark it and keep checking back.

National Polling

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Kamala Harris’ campaign continues to lose ground fractionally each day. She currently has an average advantage of just 0.9% – that’s a half-point drop over the weekend. This dip is reflected in battleground races, too. Could it be that Ms. Harris is struggling to connect with voting groups that would ordinarily be a given for her campaign? A number of questionable decisions appear to be marring her prospects. For example, campaigning with Liz Cheney in a swing state that has a large Muslim-American population could be seen as a political blunder. Many in that community see Cheney – and her father – as responsible for wars in Muslim nations. While having the former GOP representative stand by her side will boost her loyal fanbase, one wonders whether having any Cheney on one’s political stage is going with the political zeitgeist or swimming against the flow. But her issues don’t stop here.

There is little doubt that Harris is running a mammoth campaign organization, but just how effective is it? National campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodriguez told Fox News, “Our campaign is running the largest and most sophisticated operation in Pennsylvania history … While Trump’s team still refuses to tell reporters how few staff they have in the state, we have 50 coordinated offices and nearly 400 staff on the ground.” That is true. However, as Harris seems to be trailing Trump in just about every Pennsylvania poll, perhaps her team is not as effective as she would like. Rodriguez continued:

“While the Trump campaign closed its ‘minority outreach offices,’ we invested in targeted advertising to Black and Latino voters starting in August of 2023 and have now spent more than any previous presidential campaign on outreach to these communities. The Vice President is also campaigning aggressively in Pennsylvania – spending 1 out of 3 days in the state in September.”

Again, all true. But, Trump is achieving record-high (for him) approval among minority voters across the whole country, suggesting, once more, that despite the major spending and personnel advantage, Harris’ message just isn’t striking a chord.

Battle for the Battlegrounds

The superb RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls grants Donald Trump a lead in all seven states. An average here suggests Trump is now ahead across these subsections by 1.1%. While this is valuable data, it is worth narrowing the lens. Liberty Nation News opted to take the average of only the five most recent surveys. We feel this provides a more up-to-date snapshot of the race as it stands today. Using this rubric:

• Arizona – Trump +2.6%
• Georgia – Trump +3%
• Michigan – Trump +2%
• Nevada – Trump +0.6%
• North Carolina – Harris 0.8%
• Pennsylvania – Trump +1.4%
• Wisconsin – Trump +0.6%

Overall, Donald Trump has an average lead of 1.3% over the seven key swing states. The latest polling additions suggest he has bolstered his lead in Georgia and has again overtaken Harris in Nevada but has lost ground in North Carolina. If the election were held today, and these results played out, Donald Trump would likely win the election with 290 Electoral College votes.

Betting on Election 2024

It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:

• Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
• Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)

And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what do the gamblers have to say about November 5 this year?

• Donald Trump: 13/21 (-161.29)
• Kamala Harris: 18/11 (+163)

Trump’s probability of winning the election sits at 61.73% compared to Harris’ at 37.88%. Other notable betting options being played include:

• Donald Trump to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 5/2 (+250) or a 28.57% probability
• Kamala Harris to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 7/2 (+350) or a 22.22%  probability
• Donald Trump to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 2/1 (+200) or a 33.33% probability
• Kamala Harris to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 11/2 (+550) or a 15.38% probability

Significantly, according to the betting markets, the most likely scenario for this election remains that Trump wins between 300 and 329 EC votes. The second most likely is that Trump gets more than the required 270 but fewer than 300.

* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet, and the first number is the return. 3/5 means a winning bet of $5 would yield a $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning somebody would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning a person would win $250 on a $100 wager.

Read More on Liberty Nation News’ Election Coverage:

The Quadrennial Question: Can We Trust the Polls and Pundits?

Family Feud: Media Zeroes In on White House Warfare

Kamala’s Existential Crisis: Minority Voters Edging Toward Trump