With the 2024 election just two weeks away, new early voting data from key Florida counties indicates a noticeable shift that could reshape the presidential race. Traditionally strongholds for Democrats, these counties are showing unexpected Republican leads in early voting figures—a potential boost for former President Donald Trump as he campaigns against Vice President Kamala Harris in a high-stakes sprint to Election Day.

Republicans have gained ground in several prominent Florida counties, the data show, with early voting results revealing surprising Republican leads in historically blue territories. Here’s the current breakdown as of day 2 of early voting:

• Duval County: R+4.6
• Miami-Dade County: R+12.8
• Palm Beach County: R+17.2
• Hillsborough County: R+15.4
• Pinellas County: R+25.5

These numbers stand in sharp contrast to past elections, where Democrats typically dominated early voting in these areas. The shift suggests that voter sentiment may be changing in a state crucial to securing a path to the presidency. Miami-Dade’s swing to a Republican lead of nearly 13 points is particularly notable, as it has been a reliable Democrat base for years, driven by its large Hispanic and African-American populations.

Florida early voting update – day 2 (notable counties):

🔴 Duval: R+4.6
🔴 Miami-Dade: R+12.8
🔴 Palm Beach: R+17.2
🔴 Hillsborough: R+15.4
🔴 Pinellas: R+25.5

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— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) October 22, 2024

Trump’s campaign efforts to attract Hispanic voters seem to be paying dividends, with messaging aimed at addressing economic opportunities and emphasizing his opposition to socialist policies resonating among some Latino communities. In Palm Beach, Hillsborough, and Pinellas counties, Republican leads are even wider. These regions, often seen as bellwethers for the state, reflect broader voter concerns, especially regarding economic security. Trump appears to have gained traction, particularly among small business owners and retirees, who are key voting blocs in Florida.

In the 2020 election, Donald Trump won the state with 51.2% of the vote compared to Joe Biden’s 47.9%, expanding his margin to 3.3% compared to 2016. Trump’s gains were particularly evident in Miami-Dade, where his messaging on the economy and his opposition to socialism resonated with many Hispanic voters, including Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan-Americans. This support in South Florida proved crucial to his victory.

In the 2016 election, Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton in Florida, securing 49.0% of the vote against her 47.8%, a 1.2% margin. His success was driven by strong support among white working-class voters and non-college-educated whites, particularly in the Panhandle and central regions of the state. Clinton, meanwhile, struggled to generate the same level of Hispanic support that previous Democratic candidates had enjoyed, especially in Miami-Dade. In both races, Trump’s strategy focused on mobilizing rural and suburban voters, underscoring Florida’s pivotal role in his path to the White House. As a result, Florida remains a likely state for Republicans.

At his Miami-area golf club on Tuesday, Trump held a roundtable aimed at engaging Latino voters. With Election Day just two weeks away, over 18 million Americans have already cast their ballots, as reported by the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

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