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Allegedly leaked documents from the US National Security Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, paired with Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations, seek to disrupt Israel’s plans of responding to Iran’s recent ballistic missile assault on Israel. Regardless, Iran is bracing for an Israeli attack that may target its nuclear facilities, and Israel remains undeterred, especially following Hezbollah’s failed attempt to eliminate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The alleged leak, described by CNN and Axios as a major security breach, supposedly outlines the scale of Israel’s potential attack against the Islamic Republic. Published on October 17 on the pro-Iranian “Middle East Spectator” Telegram channel, the two documents are labeled “top secret” and contain notes specifying they are intended exclusively for the United States and its “Five Eyes” partners: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.
The satellite analysis allegedly compiled by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency states that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has been handling air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) and has moved various munitions around, while there is no indication of an intended use of nuclear weapons.
The other document that appears to be sourced to the National Security Agency outlines recent activities conducted by the IAF, including air drills, intelligence operations, and the relocation of advanced-weaponry munitions. The leak alleges that the IAF transferred 16 Golden Horizon missiles, likely an Israeli Sparrow missile variation that was used to strike an Iranian S-300 outpost located close to the Natanz nuclear facility. The document added that Israel had relocated 40 ROCKS IS02 stand-off range air-to-surface missiles developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.
The file also claims that the IAF conducted two air drills on October 15–16, training air-to-air refueling with three KC-707 tankers and one Gulfstream G550 aircraft. Further, it indicates that the IAF installed concealment screens over six F-15I fighter jets capable of firing ALMBs and suggests Israel has been deploying surveillance UAVs to monitor different targets.
This is not the first instance in which leaked documents have revealed the imminent threat of a large-scale Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic. In 2012, Foreign Policy reported that Israel was planning on striking Iran’s nuclear facilities via airbases in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The seemingly intentional leak allegedly disrupted the operation from taking place, with many officials claiming that elements within the US administration at the time sought to prevent Israel from striking Iranian nuclear sites.
Meanwhile, Israel recently uncovered a spy ring led by Tehran consisting of seven Israeli-Azerbaijani dual nationals. Prosecutors stated on October 21 that the suspects had allegedly collected information on Israel Defense Forces (IDF) facilities, including the Nevatim and Ramat David Airbases that were struck by Iranian ballistic missiles and Hezbollah in the last few weeks. The defendants are also accused of gathering intelligence on Iron Dome batteries, ports, energy infrastructure, and an unnamed “senior security figure.”
Despite the leaks and Tehran’s intelligence operations, the regime still expects a strong Israeli response that could target Iranian nuclear facilities. A day after the leak, Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi threatened that “the necessary response will be given to any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or any similar attack.” Echoing these remarks, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed that Tehran has submitted a formal letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arguing that an attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure is not permissible under UN Security Council Resolution 533.
A recent escalation by the Iran-led Axis of Resistance has further pressured Israel to carry out a strong response. A drone launched on October 19 by Hezbollah struck the residence of Israel’s prime minister, urging Netanyahu to promptly issue a warning: “The agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today made a bitter mistake.”
Seemingly aware of its miscalculation during heightened tensions, Iran was quick to backpedal on its ties to the attack. Tasnim News, closely affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, first hailed the attack as a “historical event,” only to swiftly distance itself by claiming that “Hezbollah’s involvement in the attack is contested.” Similarly, the Islamic Republic’s mission to the United Nations denied any involvement in the assassination attempt.
Israel supposedly remains undeterred by the recent Hezbollah attack and Tehran’s threats. The Israeli N12 News cited anonymous political officials claiming that Jerusalem’s response will intensify as a result of the UAV attack. The Israeli Security Cabinet finalized a six-hour meeting on October 20, discussing Israel’s upcoming operation and agreeing to last-minute approval of the strikes to ensure operational security.
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