When Jared Golden unseated Republican congressman Bruce Polquin in 2018, it was the first time in over a century that an incumbent had been defeated in Maine's Second Congressional District. Just six years later and the seat could flip once again, thanks in large part to Golden's flip-flop on an "assault weapons" ban. 

Golden was one of those rare Democrats opposed to most gun control laws, but after the mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine in October of last year he abruptly reversed his previous stance and said he was ready to collaborate with "any colleague to get this done in the time that I have left in Congress.” While Golden's embrace of a gun ban drew praise from fellow Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, University of Maine political science professor Mark Brewer says it could hurt him in the district, which is one of the most rural in Congress. 

“Hunting is a big deal in the Second Congressional District. I mean, right now we're wrapping up moose hunt and bear hunt,” said Brewer. “Even in a normal year, guns would be a big issue in the district. But it's obviously bigger this time around, given the mass shooting in Lewiston, which is Golden's hometown, and then in the aftermath of that, Golden saying that he was reversing a long-standing position. 

... Golden has focused his arguments on being on the side of law enforcement, touting his record in Congress, and emphasizing he owns guns and goes hunting. A recent ad shows a former colonel of the Maine State Police, Craig Poulin, vouching for Golden as the congressman fires a gun.

He hasn’t focused as much on the Lewiston shootings as a defense, said James Melcher, a professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington.

“I think he thinks talking about why would call attention to the issue, and he'd rather talk about his general support for gun rights, how he opposed other measures for gun control,” said Melcher. “I think he suspects that it's not the politically popular position in his district.”

That's a pretty good guess. Polling in ME-02 has been pretty scant this election cycle, but a September survey found Republican State Rep. Austin Theriault leading Golden by three points, 47-44 (with 9% of voters undecided). Theriault and outside groups like Restoration PAC have made Golden's support for a gun ban a key issue in the race, and while Golden has tried to focus attention on other anti-gun policies that he claims to still oppose like expanded background checks and the three-day waiting period adopted by Maine's legislature, he can't run away from his support for a semi-auto ban. 

Golden does enjoy the benefits of incumbency, even though Donald Trump won ME-02 in both 2016 and in 2020. Defeating him won't be easy, but Theriault seems to have found traction by making Golden's gun ban a major issue this time around. 

If Golden loses, however, Melcher suspects the blame will fall on his position reversal on assault weapons.

“That’s going to be a lot of what the national media looks at if he loses, is to say, ‘oh, you know, Democrat representing rural district changes on this, that's dangerous for Democrats to do,’” he said. “I think the national media will pick up on the guns issue.”

And rightfully so. Democrats have been hemorrhaging support in rural America for several election cycles, and the party's embrace of gun control is a big reason why. In 2021, for instance, Virginia Republicans swept the statewide offices and captured control of the House of Delegates with the help of rural voters who delivered historically high margins to conservative candidates in response to Democrats' attempts to pass a sweeping semi-auto ban the year before. While some rural Democrats in the Old Dominion called on their party to retool their messaging around guns and the Second Amendment, they haven't changed the substance of their positions, and they're still struggling to be competitive outside their traditional strongholds in northern Virginia and the Richmond area. 

So long as Democrats see the Second Amendment as a problem to be solved instead of a right that needs protection, many rural voters will simply refuse to support the party. Golden's now fallen in line with party leadership on a semi-auto ban, and the folks in ME-02 have the chance to not only elect someone who'll better represent them in Congress, but to send a message to Democrat leadership in two weeks that banning commonly owned and popular firearms is a non-starter for most voters in rural America.