Experts largely agree that Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election. The candidate who wins Pennsylvania is highly favored to win the entire election.

This year, a key Senate race is also happening in the state, as Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) fights what is likely his toughest election yet. Polls have shown a tight race, and Donald Trump’s recent momentum could shift some races in favor of down-ballot Republicans as well. 

That’s why Casey’s latest ad caught my attention.

The ad features a couple, Marygrace and Joe, from Old Forge, Pa.

"I'm a Republican," says Marygrace in the ad.

"And I'm a Democrat," says Joe.

"Our marriage? Pure bliss. But on politics, we just don't agree, except for Bob Casey. He's independent," Marygrace says next.

"That's right," Joe agrees. 

Marygrace continues, "Casey's leading the effort to stop corporate greedflation and price gouging. Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking, and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China to stop them from cheating. So in this house, we agree. It's Bob Casey who's doing right by Pennsylvania."

That's when Casey joins them for the obligatory legal disclaimer that he approves the message.

Did you notice anything interesting about the ad? The ad emphasizes that Casey “bucked Biden” on fracking, a critical issue in Pennsylvania, and “sided with Trump” on trade policies, particularly in ending NAFTA and imposing tariffs on China. Kamala Harris? She doesn’t even come up, even when Marygrace mentioned “corporate greedflation and price gouging.”

If this ad tells us anything, it’s that Casey is trying to distance himself from Biden and Harris while appealing to Pennsylvania’s swing voters by aligning himself with Trump. Casey recognizes Trump’s growing influence in Pennsylvania and sees that he needs to appeal to Trump’s base to secure his reelection.

Casey's campaign's internal polling numbers must show that Trump is performing well in Pennsylvania, otherwise, the ad would, at the very least highlight where Casey agrees with Kamala and where he agrees with Trump.

The Trump campaign even called out Casey for being so disingenuous.

"Leftist scumbag Bob Casey — who supported BOTH impeachment hoaxes and votes with Kamala 100% of the time — is now desperately trying to embrace President Trump," the Trump campaign said in a post on X. "Pennsylvanians know he's a shill for Kamala's deranged, radical left agenda — and always will be."

Casey's record is also not one of an independent voice in Congress; he votes with Biden 99% of the time:

This ad is BONKERS. Bob Casey votes with Biden like 99% of the time. pic.twitter.com/ABLjVnvQcb

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) October 18, 2024

Casey's Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, also called out Casey for the way he's been embracing Trump during the campaign.

Now that career politician Bob Casey is running for reelection, he's featuring President Trump's border wall in his TV ads.

But when he's not up for reelection? He fights against border security and calls the wall a "waste of money"! pic.twitter.com/4dVsmB7Xp9

— Dave McCormick (@DaveMcCormickPA) September 16, 2024

Casey clearly thinks Trump is winning Pennsylvania.