Liberty Nation News’ Election Countdown: 17 Days to Go

By: Liberty Nation - Politics Posted On: October 18, 2024 View: 0

This article was originally published on Liberty Nation - Politics. You can read the original article HERE

Kamala Harris has a demographic problem. Certain pollsters appear to be taking liberties with the weighting of party affiliation. And the battleground map continues to look good for Donald Trump. With just 17 days to go before the election, Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We update this page daily, so please bookmark and keep checking back.

National Polling

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Kamala Harris is barely hanging on to her slim lead. She currently has an average advantage of 1.5%, a total drop in support of more than half a point since last week. And any silver linings for Harris from the latest Marist poll, on close examination, seem a little suspect. Carried out between October 8 and 10, the Marist poll has some good news on its topline number for the Harris campaign, granting her a national five-point lead over Donald Trump:

“Harris (52%) leads Trump (47%) among likely voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, two points separated Harris (50%) and Trump (48%) among likely voters.”

To begin, this is very much an outlier. With an average advantage of just 1.5%, the Marist poll comes with a hefty 3.9% margin of error price tag. However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Looking into the details of respondents, “The partisan breakdown for this survey among registered voters is 38% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 28% independent.”

But, “hold on,” you might think. Is that an accurate reflection of America’s partisan divide? Well, technically, yes, but only if you go back to November 2008, when the Democratic Party held such a significant lead over Independents. Also, as of September this year, according to Gallup, the gap between Republicans and Democrats is only 2.5%, not the 5% used for this survey.

“Trump (54%) leads Harris (44%) among independents who are likely to vote, widening the 4-point edge Trump (50%) had against Harris (46%) previously.” That’s a 10-point advantage to The Donald among the all-important independent voters. And yet, Marist counts this group as just 28% of the voting population. Gallup’s ongoing measurement of party affiliation has long held that this figure should average around 40%. When the poll numbers are rebalanced for this major oversight, the topline numbers begin to look very, very different.

Battle for the Battlegrounds

National surveys are one thing, but the electoral contest is decided by the handful of states known as battlegrounds, where the real action takes place. Polling in the swing states is always much thinner on the ground than for national surveys, which is why parsing the numbers differently often provides valuable insight. The superb RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls grants Donald Trump a lead in all seven states. An average here suggests Trump is now ahead across these subsections by 0.8% – a full half-point increase since the beginning of the week. And while this is valuable data, it is worth narrowing the lens – due to the sparsity of polling – to get a feel for the zeitgeist.

Rather than take the last ten polls to paint the pertinent picture (because these can range from as far back as mid-September), Liberty Nation News opted to take the average of the five most recent surveys. We feel this provides a more up-to-date snapshot of the race as it stands today. Using this rubric:

Arizona – Trump +2%
Georgia – Trump +1.6%
Michigan – Trump +1.6%
Nevada – Trump +0.8%
North Carolina – Trump +1%
Pennsylvania – Trump +0.8%
Wisconsin – Trump +0.8%

Since Monday, October 14, Donald Trump’s overall average lead has expanded from 0.4% to 1.22% – fast approaching the same edge Harris has nationally. The latest polling shows increases for Trump in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin – the three states Kamala was most hoping to win. In fact, in these three major battlegrounds, the last 15 polls (five in each) have the VP leading in only a single survey (with four ties and the rest pointing to Trump).

Betting on Election 2024

It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:

Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)

And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what do the gamblers have to say about November 5 this year?

Donald Trump: 7/10 (-142.86)
Kamala Harris: 13/9 (+144)

The odds continue to swing in Donald Trump’s favor with yet another overnight increase that suggests the cash players are growing in confidence for a Trump win. Yesterday’s betting markets saw the total cash bets placed on Trump almost double that of Harris. Based on these latest betting market odds, the probability of Trump winning in November now stands at 58.82% compared with 40.98% for a Harris victory.

Betting odds change more frequently than polling because they are updated as each tranche of betting happens, rather than waiting for a multi-day poll to be completed. This allows the interested observer to see how the world is reacting to events in near real-time.

To be a one-stop shop for all things Election 2024, Liberty Nation News will be updating this page every day with the latest polling info, betting data, and campaign news.

* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet, and the first number is the return. 3/5 means a winning bet of $5 would yield a $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning somebody would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning a person would win $250 on a $100 wager.