A new poll shows a major shift in the Ohio Senate race as Republican candidate Bernie Moreno has taken a slim lead over longtime Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.

The latest Morning Consult poll reveals Moreno with 47% support among likely voters, edging out Brown by one percentage point, who now stands at 46%. This represents a notable shift from the previous poll, conducted in mid-September, which had Brown leading by two points. This could have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, as Brown has long been considered a crucial Democratic incumbent in a state that has leaned increasingly red in recent years.

If Brown were to lose his seat, it would further weaken Democrats’ ability to retain control of the Senate in 2024. The Ohio race has drawn national attention, especially as the Republican Party seeks to capitalize on Brown’s vulnerability. Moreno, a businessman with strong ties to the GOP, has gained momentum in the past few months, tightening the race in a state that has proven to be pivotal for both parties.

📊 OHIO Senate: @MorningConsult

🟥 Bernie Moreno: 47%
🟦 Sherrod Brown: 46%

Last poll (9/18) – 🔵 Brown +2
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#107 (1.9/3.0) | 10/6-15 | 1,243 LV pic.twitter.com/FLvuZgKSKE

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2024

Milwaukee, Wisconsin – July 16, 2024: Ohio Senate Candidate Bernie Moreno at the Republican National Convention.

Republicans are optimistic according to conversations with Axios, banking on Moreno’s potential to dethrone Brown. Brown, known for his distinctive populist appeal, has managed to keep his seat in an increasingly Republican state.

However, with just three weeks until the elections, both internal and public polling suggest that Brown’s appeal may falter, particularly with Trump leading the Republican ticket. The Ohio Senate contest has shattered records, becoming the priciest congressional race this cycle with ad spending and reservations surpassing $483 million since the start of 2023, AdImpact reports. For now, it seems that the Republicans have a new reason to be optimistic as Moreno’s campaign gains ground against a seasoned Democratic incumbent.

New York, NY – April 5, 2019: Democratic Presidential candidate US Senator Sherrod Brown speaks during National Action Network 2019 convention at Sheraton Times Square.

While many Democratic incumbents are still leading in key states, Brown’s declining support signals a tough road ahead for the party. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas, who was previously seen as vulnerable, has also regained the lead over his Democratic challenger.

The composition of the U.S. Senate includes 51 members on the Democratic side (counting three independents) and 49 Republicans. The 2024 elections will feature 34 Senate seats in contention, including one in a special election in Nebraska, with 23 currently held by Democrats or Independents. The Republicans could reclaim the Senate majority with a net gain of two seats or with just one additional seat if they also secure the presidency in 2024.

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