Liberty Nation News’ Election Countdown: 19 Days to Go

By: Liberty Nation - Politics Posted On: October 16, 2024 View: 0

This article was originally published on Liberty Nation - Politics. You can read the original article HERE

All the latest polls, betting odds, and news. Updated Daily.

Kamala Makes a pitch to black voters. Rasmussen Reports has some sobering numbers for the Harris campaign. Trump continues to gain ground with the national polling. And the swing state divide just piled on the proverbial pounds. With just 19 days to go before the election, Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We update this page daily so please bookmark and keep checking back.

National Polling

According to RealClearPolitics, Kamala Harris maintains a lead over Donald Trump in national polling – but it’s getting tighter. She currently has an average advantage of 1.5%, which signifies a drop in support of 0.4% since the beginning of the week. A new survey, courtesy of Rasmussen Reports, suggests that the Harris downturn will continue apace.

Seeking responses from almost 2,000 likely voters, Rasmussen determined that Trump holds a national lead of three points over Harris, and while this is somewhat of an outlier compared with other recent polling, it has a margin of error of only 2%. However, when digging into the demographics, the truly surprising data emerges. According to the pollster:

“Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 34% of black voters, 50% of Hispanics and 41% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 45% of whites, 57% of black voters, 37% of Hispanics and 44% of other minorities would vote for Harris.”

The racial demographic question is of supreme importance this election as Trump appears to be gaining ground among minority voters, specifically Hispanics and black men. Notably, the Harris campaign, in response to crashing poll numbers from these groups, launched a policy proposal that promises – among other things – to award $20,000 in “forgivable loans” to black entrepreneurs.

And to add to the pile, Rasmussen also posed politics’ most infamous conundrum. “By a 16-point margin, most U.S. voters answer ‘no’ to a question famously asked by Ronald Reagan in 1980: ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’” it reports.

Battle for the Battlegrounds

National surveys are one thing, but the electoral contest is decided by the handful of states known as battlegrounds, and it is here where the real action takes place. Polling in the swing states is always much thinner on the ground than for national surveys, which is why parsing the numbers differently often provides valuable insight. The superb RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls grants Donald Trump a lead in six out of the seven states (with Kamala leading in just Wisconsin +0.3%). An average here suggests Trump is now ahead across these subsections by 0.7 – an increase of 0.3% since yesterday. And while this is valuable data, it is worth narrowing the lens – due to the sparsity of polling – to get a feel for the zeitgeist.

Rather than take the last ten polls to paint the pertinent picture (because these can range from as far back as mid-September), Liberty Nation News opted to take the average of the five most recent surveys. We feel this provides a more up-to-date snapshot of the race as it stands today. Using this rubric:

Arizona – Trump +1.6%
Georgia – Trump +1.4%
Michigan – Trump +1%
Nevada – Trump +1.8%
North Carolina – Trump +1%
Pennsylvania – Trump +0.8%
Wisconsin – Trump +0.6%

Since Monday, October 14, Donald Trump’s overall average lead has expanded from 0.4% to 1.17%. The latest polling adds an extra 0.2% edge to Trump in Arizona, a 0.4% bump in Georgia, and a massive whole-point spike in Nevada. Harris’ most likely path to victory was presumed to rely on winning in Nevada (Trump +1.8%), Wisconsin (Trump +0.6%), and Pennsylvania (Trump +0.8%). For now, polling suggests this pathway will be a supreme struggle.

Betting on Election 2024

It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:

Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)

And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what do the gamblers have to say about November 5 this year?

Donald Trump: 3/4 (-133.33)
Kamala Harris: 11/8 (+138)

The odds continue to swing in Donald Trump’s favor with an overnight increase that directly reflects the drop in support Harris received from the cash players. Based on these latest betting market odds, the probability of Trump winning in November now stands at 57.14% compared with 42.02% for a Harris victory.

Betting odds change more frequently than polling because they are updated as each tranche of betting happens, rather than waiting for a multi-day poll to be completed. This allows the interested observer to see how the world is reacting to events in near real-time.

To be a one-stop shop for all things Election 2024, Liberty Nation News will be updating this page every day with the latest polling info, betting data, and campaign news.

* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet, and the first number is the return. 3/5 means a winning bet of $5 would yield a $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning somebody would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning a person would win $250 on a $100 wager.