Liberty Nation News’ Election Countdown: 20 Days to Go

By: Liberty Nation - Politics Posted On: October 15, 2024 View: 1

This article was originally published on Liberty Nation - Politics. You can read the original article HERE

NBC delivers some sobering news to the Kamala Harris campaign. The VP finds herself in hot water of plagiarism accusations. Battleground surveys show a definite swing towards Donald Trump. And the betting markets get just a little tighter. With just 20 days to go before the election, Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We update this page daily so please bookmark and keep checking back.

National Polling

According to RealClearPolitics, Kamala Harris maintains a lead over Donald Trump in national polling. She currently has an average advantage of 1.7%. While there was no fluctuation in the overall numbers since yesterday, that doesn’t mean that the Democrat contender can coast to an easy – albeit slim – victory come November 5.

The latest NBC survey had Trump and Harris in a dead heat on 48% each. This represents an upswing for the former of four points and a drop by the latter of one point. An expanded poll by the news purveyor shows that when third-party candidates are included, Trump gains a slight edge (47% to 46%). The “root causes” of this appear to be Harris’ decline in popularity.

The same poll registered a stunning increase in Kamala Harris’ popularity when she was tipped to become the Democratic Party nominee in July, rising from 32% to 48%, creating a flurry of excitement and the much-touted Kamalamentum. But it was not to last. Since September, her positive approval had dropped five points to 43%, while her negative rating has increased to 49%. She is now, officially, underwater in terms of popularity. Concurrently, Donald Trump’s popularity paints a similar picture with a 43% positive and 51% negative rating by NBC. However, in this poll’s history, this is actually his highest-ever approval since leaving office.

It seems the heady summer days of Kamala’s “joy” campaign are over. She received significant bumps along the way, including choosing her VP running mate, being anointed at the DNC, and an arguably positive debate performance. But it appears those days are over and the chilly season approaches.

Battle for the Battlegrounds

National surveys are one thing, but the electoral contest is decided by the handful of states known as battlegrounds, and it is here where the real action takes place. Poling in the swing states is always much thinner on the ground than for national surveys; which is why parsing the numbers differently often provides valuable insight. The superb RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls grants Donald Trump a lead in six out of the seven states (with Kamala leading in just Wisconsin). An average here suggest Trump is ahead across these subsection by 0.4%. And while this is valuable data, due to the sparsity of polling it is worth narrowing the lens to get a feel for the zeitgeist.

Rather than take the last ten polls to paint the pertinent picture (because these can range from as far back as mid September), Liberty Nation News opted to take the average of the five most recent surveys. We feel this provides a more up-to-date snapshot of the race as it stands today. Using this rubric:

Arizona – Trump +1.4%
Georgia – Trump +1%
Michigan – Trump +1%
Nevada – Trump +0.8%
North Carolina – Trump +1%
Pennsylvania – Trump +0.8%
Wisconsin – Trump +0.6%

The first thing to note is that when filtered this way, Donald Trump’s overall average lead expands from 0.4% to 0.94%, which should be concerning for VP Harris. But even more anxiety-inducing is the change in just one day. Overnight polling in these crucial states has disrupted the game board significantly. Based on yesterday’s numbers (Oct. 14), Trump had the edge in five states, was tied in Pennsylvania, and lost out to Harris in Wisconsin. When new polling is plugged in, today’s figures show that Wisconsin has flipped to The Donald and that he now has a fractional lead in the Keystone State.

This analysis is bolstered by the freshest survey from Harvard CAPS/Harris, which polled swing state voters. The Hill reports that “48 percent of voters who said they would cast their ballots early in critical swing states picked Trump, while 47 percent sided with Harris. Another 5 percent of respondents said they went with another choice or had not yet voted.

Betting on Election 2024

It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate, when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:

Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)

And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what do the gamblers have to say about November 5 this year?

Donald Trump: 9/11 (-121.95)
Kamala Harris: 21/17 (+124)

Since yesterday, the odds have changed slightly with an uptick both for Trump and Harris. This is due to substantial numbers of bets being placed for each candidate. Over this last weekend, Oddschecker relates that 64% of wagers backed Trump, while 36% backed Kamala.

Betting odds change more frequently than polling as they are updated as each tranche of betting happens, rather than waiting for a multi-day poll to be completed. This allows the interested observer to see how the world is reacting to events in very nearly real-time.

Liberty Nation News will be updating this page every day with the latest polling info, betting data, and latest campaign news to be your one-stop shop for all things Election 2024.

* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet and the first number is the return. 3/5 means that a winning bet of $5 would yield $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning that one would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning that one would win $250 if one wagered $100.