And they aren’t all Arab ‘Christian’ Americans.

The Guardian That the Trump campaign would open an office in Hamtramck, a tiny city of around 28,000 people north of downtown Detroit, less than a month before the election, speaks to a particular curiosity of the 2024 presidential race. About 40% of Hamtramck’s residents are of Middle Eastern and North African descent, 60% are believed to be Muslim Americans, and the city has an all-Muslim city council.

In past elections, Arab Americans were a solidly Democratic voting bloc, especially in the years following 9/11 and given Trump’s overtly anti-Muslim rhetoric. But with Kamala Harris reportedly “underwater” in Michigan – now three points behind Trump among likely voters, having led the former president by five points as recently as last month, according to one recent poll – Muslim and Arab American communities across Michigan could play a major role in the outcome of the presidential election.

A poll by the Arab American Institute has Harris 18 points below Biden’s 2020 level of support among Arab Americans. “We know that we have 40,000 voters just in Dearborn. They are highly persuadable to our cause, and we believe fundamentally that if they come out to vote, they will vote against Harris,” said Abdel Salam. “The former president prevented our families, our friends, our colleagues from entering the country,” he continued, referring to Trump’s 2017 travel ban on several Muslim-majority countries. “But the vice-president killed them.”

The HillThe ongoing war in Gaza has turned historical Arab American support for Democratic candidates on its head, with 46 percent of likely voters polled by the Arab American Institute saying they would support former President Trump, while 42 percent said they would back Vice President Harris. 

Normally, Democrats have a 2-to-1 advantage among Arab Americans in elections. Wednesday’s poll found Harris is running 18 points behind the Arab American support for President Biden in the 2020 election, when 6 in 10 Arab Americans voted for the Democrat. Trump’s lead over Harris, however, are within the margin of error of the poll, which is 4.5 points.

In the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, Arab American support for Democrats cratered, falling from 40 percent identifying as Democrats in April 2023 to 23 percent saying they were Democrats last October. Less than 1 in 5 Arab Americans polled said they would vote for Biden last October.

“While some headlines based on a few organizational member surveys have suggested a third-party candidate could garner a plurality of the Arab American vote, this nationwide poll of voters suggests otherwise,” the Arab American Institute wrote in the poll. “All the third-party candidates combined receive just 12% of the Arab American vote. Instead, it’s Trump who is the beneficiary of the community’s anger and despair over the Biden Administration’s failure to prevent the unfolding genocide in Gaza.” 

Republicans have steadily increased their support in the Arab American community since April 2023. That month, 23 percent of Arab Americans identified themselves as Republicans. In October 2023, 32 percent said they were Republicans. In Wednesday’s poll, 38 percent — the same number as Democrats — said they were Republican. 

Last month, Amer Ghalib, the Democratic mayor of Hamtramck, announced his endorsement of Donald Trump after meeting the former president at a rally in Flint, Michigan, where the pair spoke for about 20 minutes.

Believe it or not, there are many Arab Muslims in the Middle East who support Israel.