I try to be very cautious about polls and odds-making. But something seems to have happened in the last few days that indicates a change in the direction of the election.

There’s been a significant shift from Kamala Harris towards President Trump in the various betting odds platforms, raising the likelihood that polls are going to start turning decisively towards him, too.

After that, the election, less than a month away, will bring President Trump victory. It’s as if the last remaining undecided independents have started to break for Trump.

Here’s the RealClearPolitics betting odds average, created from a variety of outlets that take bets on the electoral outcome:

Betting odds average with a swing toward Trump. https://t.co/pzbawLfEGX pic.twitter.com/g9oNAEPJTI

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 11, 2024

They all show the same thing, a move towards President Trump after a couple months of Kamala on top.

The exact date of the crossover is Oct. 5.

What was going on in the news that day?

One, President Trump held his return rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, an extraordinary act of courage, a Douglas MacArthur moment, as AT contributor Paul Binotto put it, where they sang ‘Ave Maria.’ It reminded voters of everything they liked about him, and what they wanted to see in a leader who leads. He did his part to shift momentum completely independent of Kamala Harris.

As for Harris, and the Harris-Biden administration, based on what I found, the top story was FEMA issuing a rumor-checking website page to counter all the talk about FEMA interfering with aid to Hurricane Helene victims in North Carolina, and FEMA not having enough resources to help them, owing to its illegal alien commitments for transport, shelter and package deals for millions of illegal border crossers.

Incompetence, seen up close, combined with the ongoing border failure, placed right out front apparently was lethal for Kamala. And voters must have believed the first story, which came out a day or two earlier, that illegals were getting all they needed from FEMA while residents caught up in a terrible natural disaster were getting little to nothing. Didn’t matter which pot the cash was in, this skewed priority was lethal for Harris in a disaster.

It probably did not help that she wasn’t seen on the ground helping anyone. She posed in front of glassy desks and tables to appear busy. Nothing was heard from her after, other than a few tweets which could have been done by anyone, and a brief trip to Georgia.

Worse still, Democrat operative David Axelrod had just made a claim that it was going to be ‘hard’ for people in deep red western North Carolina to vote. Like the lawfare that propelled President Trump to the front of the polls before Joe Biden was pushed out, it seems to have had the effect of motivating voters way beyond North Carolina. Voters don’t like cynical stories of politicized aid during a disaster.

Besides this, Kamala’s husband, Doug Emhoff, got his name in the news shortly before the betting odds flipped — on a credible allegation that he beat his girlfriend in public, at a Harvey Weinstein sponsored event in the south of France. Mr. ‘Redefining Masculinity’ seemed to be the same sort of abusive person one found in those Hollywood Weinstein circles. It made him seem as phony as Kamala. It took him two days to deny the allegation — and the betting odds just kept moving to Trump. I suspect this story, largely ignored by the mainstream media as ‘tabloid’ trash, had an effect.

Lastly, there were the word salads — Kamala’s handlers could see the momentum falling, and decided to get her out into the public a bit more, with friendly and jejeune interviewers and television appearances — all of which she blew. AT’s Andrea Widburg noted a few of those salads in the days building up to Oct. 5 here. She was suddenly doing a lot of them.

I suspect these sank her betting odds more than anything. Young black and Latino voters have told pollsters they want to know more about her and what she plans for the country. All they get in reply is gibberish, or ‘joy,’ like she’s trying to sell them a can of Pepsi. It’s not real joy, see, it’s just what the ad promises — life, love, good health, the works. Been there, done that — and not even young people who weren’t born before those Coke and Pepsi ads promising world peace were around were fooled.

Fact is, in her appearances before the public, she treated them a lot like … the public. This exchange, conducted a couple days after the betting odds shifted, seems so emblematic:

Navy Veteran tells Kamala he waited 2 years to get medical care for a bad knee, and chose to go to Mexico for a specialist where he received care in 45 minutes. He asks what she will do to improve the healthcare system.

Kamala: I grew up in a middle-class family. pic.twitter.com/ROZ5Kq6Y9E

— Bad Hombre (@joma_gc) October 11, 2024

The man poured out his heart revealing information one might not like revealing in public, about his health and finances. And rather than asking “are you all right,” as she claims she does (I don’t believe her) she ignores his question, replying with ‘I was raised in a middle class family,’ as if anyone should care about that.

She was selling him her bottle of fake ‘joy’ instead of offering him solutions, or even empathy, to the problem he has that’s so big to him he wanted to ask her directly. He got the teleprompter recording instead.

There were a lot of issues at that rally appearance, from fake attendees brought in by a Hollywood staffing company to the apparent use of the teleprompter at what was supposed to be a freewheeling town hall meeting.

The response to that man came a few days after the Oct. 5 crossover in the betting pools, but it’s the summary of what made the crossover happen — a fake candidate, a bad record, zero solutions, and not even a touch of the Bill Clinton-style “I feel your pain” empathy, even for show.

She’s an awful candidate and the more voters see of her, the more they catch on. Trump, by contrast, is all about empathy and connection at his rallies, acknowledging what the public sees and hears and feels, and remembering different names and faces, all the while, saying what he really thinks, no holding back from the public as if they are not to be trusted.

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who has up until now been associated with Democrats, laid it out very well:

A number of my good friends and family have been surprised about my decision to support @realDonaldTrump for president. They have been surprised because my political giving history has been mostly to Democrats, my voting registration has typically been Democrat (in NY, you must…

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) October 11, 2024

No wonder the betting pools are shifting. Looking forward to this trend to continue because any day now, this isn’t going to be reversible.