Eight years ago, it was all but unthinkable that Donald Trump could count on any significant support from two constituencies traditionally hostile to Republicans and crucial to Democrats. After his trip down that golden escalator, he delivered remarks about illegal immigrants that were widely viewed as insulting. They would be replayed over and over, destined to live in infamy. Most observers believed that he had permanently repelled minority voters and that the minimal support Republican presidential candidates had received over the years from Latino and black voters would shrink even further to almost undetectable levels.

In his victorious first run for the White House in 2016, Trump’s minority support was indeed shallow with only 6% of blacks and 28% of Latinos pulling the lever for the bombastic billionaire, according to the reputable Pew Research Center. In 2020, despite falling short in his bid for re-election, Trump improved his standing on the margins by about one-third, attracting 8% support from blacks and 36% from Latinos. But in 2024, multiple surveys are suggesting levels of minority support for the 45th president that have not only risen substantially, but threaten to actually realign the electorate.

While conservatives engaging in wishful thinking had speculated over the years that Trump could make serious inroads with minority voters, their wishes now seem to be coming true. Even writers at Washington’s most famous liberal newspaper have been forced to report that something substantial or even game-changing could well be in the works. In their story with the teaser “Trump polls better than ever with Black, Hispanic voters” they admit that “[b]oth numbers — and especially that for Black voters — could set modern-day records for a Republican in a presidential election.”

The numbers they reference are perhaps surprising with regard to Spanish-speaking voters, but downright shocking when it comes to African Americans: 42% of Latinos and 20% of blacks plan to vote for the 45th president. Rewinding to the day in 2015 when he first entered the political stage, who would have imagined this? How is this even possible? Is it only because of their rank disappointment over the failures of a president, Joe Biden, who for most of his career enjoyed high levels of popularity among black voters?

Any way you cut it, this is a hair-on-fire crisis for Kamala Harris and Democrats across the land, with that same DC newspaper admitting the possibility – or even likelihood – that “we are headed for a sizable realignment in how non-White voters cast their ballots.”

Minority Voters: Want vs Need

Trump does not need to attract a majority of black and Hispanic voters, so he can pick his spots in micro-targeting certain issues and areas that appear promising. He would be overjoyed to attract the growing slice of minority votes most polls are finding these days, as it would almost certainly grant him the title of 47th president.

But Harris must secure the traditionally overwhelming support Democrats have always been able to count on from minorities, or it’s all over for her. Consider that in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost to Trump despite massive minority support. In 2020, Biden’s numbers were down a bit but still more than acceptable among blacks and Hispanics, and he eked out a victory that would have gone to Trump with the reversal of fewer than 50,000 votes in three swing states. With such support plummeting first for Biden and now for Harris, unless the many polls on this subject are wrong or these voters return to the fold at the last minute, the vice president has an existential crisis on her hands. She has brought in the heaviest of hitters to try and repair this fissure, but he may have only made matters worse.

A famous TV ad from the 1980’s for an anti-perspirant advised: “Never let them see you sweat.” And yet, the Harris campaign is openly and profusely sweating about these two crucial constituencies – particularly black men – that most people assumed she would have all wrapped up by now. It seemed that Joe Biden’s problems attracting a sufficient percentage of black men should have disappeared when a woman of color was selected to take over the top spot.  Apparently not. After a massive ad campaign targeting black men failed to move the needle, the campaign brought in former president Barack Obama to make a case that the vice president has been unwilling or unable to make for herself.

Obama’s speech in Pittsburgh last week was some piece of work. He lectured, prodded, and shamed black men for not automatically coming to the aid of their fellow person of color, and accused them of sexism:

“The women in our lives have been getting our backs this entire time … When we get in trouble, and the system isn’t working for us, they’re the ones out there marching and protesting. And now, you’re thinking about sitting out or supporting somebody who has a history of denigrating you because you think that’s a sign of strength because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down? That’s not acceptable.”

Even reliable liberals seemed appalled at Obama shaming his fellow black men. Nia-Malika Henderson, columnist for Bloomberg and one-time senior political reporter for CNN, was blunt:

“Don’t be sexist. Vote for Kamala Harris. That’s one heck of a bumper sticker message … Obama has frequently singled out Black people for reprimanding … Harris supporters were out post-speech doing damage control … … Jesse Jackson, who, more than anyone, paved the way for the Obama presidency, famously said that Obama talked down to black people … Black men don’t need to be torn down. They don’t need to be condescended to. They don’t need to be scolded. What they need is a president who sees them, hears them and makes their lives better — just like every other American.”

The Collapse of Identity Politics

This ongoing crisis is a textbook example of the problem with left-wing identity politics. After a while, voters become fully aware that they are being prodded to vote for a candidate because of the color of her skin rather than the content of her character. Demanding loyalty to their race is downright insulting. Joe Biden got away with such patronizing when he said in 2020, “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” Trump, on the other hand, made a simple appeal to downtrodden black voters wary of more broken promises from drive-by Democrats: “What the hell have you got to lose?” Perhaps these voters are now starting to buy that argument.

Would Donald Trump demand that all white voters support him because they are also Caucasian? Imagine the reaction if he said that. For all the explosively controversial remarks he has survived since entering the political realm, he would almost certainly lose the election with such a statement. And yet, Obama has done exactly that. Essentially, he is lashing out at voters who, like everyone else, can hardly afford groceries, gas, or home heating as they fall further into debt since Joe Biden became president, while the neediest among them are being shoved aside for the sake of millions of illegal immigrants who stormed the country once Biden opened the border.

There is scant evidence that this type of tactic is effective. Obama and Trump are alike in one respect. They are both larger-than-life figures whose appeal does not translate to substandard candidates they endorse. While Obama was instantly electric in his appeal to both black and white voters and scored two decisive victories, Harris dropped out of her 2020 campaign before the first vote was even cast. This brings to mind the massive rally in Philadelphia with Obama and seemingly every important Democrat and left-leaning celebrity on the night before the 2016 election. It didn’t work, in large part because the candidate could not close the deal by herself. The contrast between Obama and Clinton just reminded people of how weak a candidate Clinton was. Voters, especially those who are undecided, prefer a candidate who asks for their vote herself. If she doesn’t, it signals a lack of capacity to persuade, a crucial skill for any prospective president.

If this election does turn out the way Republicans hope, one can imagine a casual conversation sometime in the future about minority voters, and someone mentioning the second term of Donald Trump. And one could envision a response along the lines of, “Oh yeah, 2024 – wasn’t that the year when black and Latino voters finally refused to continue their blind loyalty to the Democratic Party?”