Liberty Nation News’ Election Countdown: 21 Days to Go

By: Liberty Nation - Politics Posted On: October 14, 2024 View: 4

This article was originally published on Liberty Nation - Politics. You can read the original article HERE

All the latest polls, betting odds, and news. Updated Daily.

The November 5 election could be the most important in recent history. The two sides are diametrically opposed, and many argue that the fate of the nation is at stake. Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We update this page daily so please bookmark and keep checking back.

National Polling

Toward the end of September, Vice President Kamala Harris (D) hit an all-time high against her Republican contender, former President Donald Trump, in terms of national polling, reaching the heady heights of a +2.1% average polling advantage. Over the last several weeks, however, this has gradually dipped to +1.7%. Not a huge drop, granted, but with just 21 days to go until election day, the VP’s campaign seems to be on a downswing.

In October 2020, then-candidate Joe Biden had a stunning seven-point lead over Trump; the margin dropped by about half, come Election Day. In 2016, at around the same time, Hillary Clinton had a six-point lead over Trump.

It is worth noting that, in the last 30 years, the only GOP contender to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. It is in the battleground states that elections are won or lost, and it is here that the tensions rise at least a couple of notches.

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average for swing states, the race looks like this:

Arizona = Trump = +1.0%
Georgia = Trump = +0.5%
Michigan = Trump +0.9%
Nevada = Trump +0.2%
North Carolina = Trump +0.5%
Pennsylvania = Trump +0.1%
Wisconsin = Harris +0.3%

In six out of the seven crucial battlegrounds, Donald Trump has the lead. It is worth mentioning that, in the only state where Harris has the advantage, the last five polls have returned two wins for Trump and three ties. In fact, the momentum certainly appears to be with The Donald.

Current averages take into consideration polling over time and then averaging the results by the number of polls. But to get data on who has the trend, it is worth taking only the most recent polls and examining them through the lens of wins and losses. For example, if we take just the last five polls conducted in each of the swing states, we end up with an increasingly bleak picture for one candidate.

Arizona = Trump = +1.2%
Georgia = Trump = +1%
Michigan = Trump +1%
Nevada = Trump +0.8%
North Carolina = Trump +1%
Pennsylvania = Tie
Wisconsin = Harris +0.6%

Using this metric, Trump increase his lead in five of the seven swing states. Pennsylvania becomes a tie – which is not surprising, considering both candidates are expending the majority of their time and treasure in the commonwealth. And notably, Wisconsin flips to Trump in a 1.1% swing.

Betting on Election 2024

It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate, when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:

Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)

And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what do the gamblers have to say about November 5 this year?

Donald Trump: 9/11 (-121.95)
Kamala Harris: 21/17 (+124)

While not a runaway favorite, the odds are definitely with Trump, generating an implied 54.95% probability of success for the former president against a 44.64% chance of Kamala winning.

Betting odds change more frequently than polling as they are updated as each tranche of betting happens, rather than waiting for a multi-day poll to be completed. This allows the interested observer to see how the world is reacting to events in very nearly real-time.

Liberty Nation News will be updating this page every day with the latest polling info, betting data, and latest campaign news to be your one-stop shop for all things Election 2024.

* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet and the first number is the return. 3/5 means that a winning bet of $5 would yield $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning that one would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning that one would win $250 if one wagered $100.