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The Missouri Tigers were one of the surprises of the 2023 season.
Mizzou went 11-2, collected wins over Tennessee, Kansas State, Florida and Kentucky and then upset Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
It was a godsend campaign for the Tigers, who were wandering the college football abyss for much of the last decade.
The downside to a magical season is that it raises expectations for the next one.
But that didn’t seem like an issue for the Tigers since they were going to return a lot of their best players and they bolstered their roster in the transfer portal.
All of this added up to Missouri turning into a bit of a trendy sleeper in both the SEC and to make some noise in the College Football Playoff.
The Tigers looked up for the challenge out of the gates as they dismantled Murray State and Buffalo by a combined score of 89-0, but things started to trend down as their schedule got tougher.
Mizzou eked out a win over Boston College, 27-21, in Columbia and then needed overtime to beat Vanderbilt, but the warning signs were there for the Tigers and it was not a shock that they were played off the field by Texas A&M in a 41-10 drubbing last weekend.
You’d think that a date with UMass would be a perfect get-right spot for Mizzou — and it may be — but it’s also not a situation where you want to be laying this kind of number.
Missouri vs. UMass odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | -27.5 (-106) | -4500 | o54.5 (-110) |
| UMass | +27.5 (-114) | +1600 | u54.5 (-110) |
First of all, it’s just a wonky schedule spot.
The Tigers were demoralized in front of nearly 100,000 people at Kyle Field last weekend and now need to travel to Amherst, Mass., to play in front of maybe 5,000 fans in a non-conference game sandwiched between contests with Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama and Oklahoma.
But it’s not just the schedule spot that makes Missouri unappealing as a four-score favorite. Simply put, the Tigers just are not playing all that well this season.
Mizzou’s offense ranks 68th nationally in Yards Per Play and they’re 78th (tied with UMass!) in Long Scrimmage Plays (10+ yards) despite the fact that the Tigers absolutely rolled their first two opponents.
Things are not much better for Missouri on defense, where they rank 74th (once again, tied with UMass!) in Opponent Yards Per Play.
Making the case for UMass is never easy, but it does look like this program is slowly turning things around.
The Minutemen won just three total games from 2019-22, but they went 3-9 last year and should at least replicate that record in 2024.
UMass has won just one of its first five contests, but it took Miami (Ohio) to overtime and was tied going into the fourth quarter against Northern Illinois on the road last weekend.
Betting on College Football?
Plenty of the credit for this mini-resurgence for UMass goes to quarterback Taisun Phommachanh, who had stops at Clemson and Georgia Tech before joining the Minutemen last year.
Phommachanh is a capable playmaker and should be able to ask enough questions of this suspect Missouri defense to give UMass a real shot at covering this huge number.
There aren’t too many folks who will be rushing to the window to bet UMass on Saturday afternoon, but oftentimes those are the teams that provide you the most joy as you’re kicking back for another wonderful day of college football action.
The Bet: UMass +27.5 (-114, FanDuel)
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