A new American Greatness poll shows Donald Trump with the lead in a close Pennsylvania race, with the former president up 49-48% in both a head-to-head matchup vs. Kamala Harris and in a multi-candidate race, among likely voters with leaners included.

The survey queried over 1000 voters in Pennsylvania, with 803 likely voters, and the sample included more Democrats than Republicans.

In the US Senate race, McCormick showed marked improvement. The prior American Greatness poll of Pennsylvania showed him down -13%, and this one reveals a much more competitive race, with incumbent Bob Casey at 47% and McCormick at 43%. Among those who watched the recent US Senate debate there, McCormick is down -1%, 44-43%.

Looking in depth at the presidential numbers, Trump’s lead largely flows from Catholic voters, where he has earned a +20% lead, 58-38%. Right now, 15% of Pennsylvania voters say they are still deciding and persuadable on the presidential race.

On the issues, Trump maintains a +21% lead on the issue of border security and a +9% lead on national security. Regarding the foundational, “Are you better off?” question, voters preferred the Trump era by a +24% margin, 57-33%.

Reflecting most public polling, Pennsylvanians remain pessimistic overall about the direction of the country right now, with 33% reporting they are “satisfied” and 10% saying they are “very satisfied” vs. 38% saying they are “not at all satisfied.”

67% of Pennsylvanians believe the media works on behalf of Harris and against Trump, including a majority (51%) of Pennsylvania Democrats.

43% of voters in the Keystone State believe that their popular Governor Josh Shapiro was skipped over for the vice presidential spot because he is Jewish and pro-Israel, including 34% of Democrats.

GOP vice presidential nominee, Senator JD Vance of Ohio grows far more popular in the neighboring state. The last American Greatness poll of Pennsylvania showed him with a -13% favorability ratio, and he is now -4%.

Regarding recent storm damage in America, 30% think FEMA should be aiding migrants with housing while 58% disagree.

 About The Survey

TechnoMetrica conducted the American Greatness/TIPP survey from October 7 to October 9. The online study included a sample of 1,079 registered voters in Pennsylvania provided by our panel partners. Using our likely voter model, we identified 803 respondents as likely voters in the November election. After the survey’s completion, TechnoMetrica weighted the dataset by gender, age, race, education, geographical region, and party affiliation to reflect known benchmarks from census, voter file data from the state, prior election results, and exit poll data. The weighted registered voter sample composition is 42% Democrats, 41% Republicans, and 18% independents. The survey’s credibility interval (CI) is ±3.5 percentage points for likely voter results, meaning the study is accurate within this range 19 times out of 20 if all registered voters in Pennsylvania had been surveyed. Due to smaller sample sizes, subgroups based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region have higher credibility intervals.

Resources:

American Greatness/TIPP Poll Results