Gun control advocate Ryan Busse appears headed towards an historic defeat in the Montana governor's race, with a new poll from the New York Times/Siena College showing him running far behind the other Democrats on the ballot this year. 

The new survey of 656 likely voters found Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in Montana 57-40, and Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy besting incumbent Jon Tester 52-44. 

Busse, the former Kimber executive who ditched the gun industry in favor of becoming a senior advisor to Giffords and a paid expert witness defending gun control laws in states like California and Illinois before he decided to challenge Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte, is trailing the incumbent by a whopping 22 points in the NYTimes/Siena poll. Busse only has support from 35% of voters, while Gianforte has the backing of 57% of survey respondents. 

Montana has been trending red for several election cycles, so Busse was the underdog from the get-go, but the fact that he's underperforming both Harris and Tester is a clear sign that his attempt to downplay his anti-gun activism isn't playing well with Montana voters... even those who might be inclined to cast a ballot for Democrats. 

The topline number is a nightmare for Busse, but the cross-tabs are even more brutal. Busse trails Gianforte by double digits in almost every demographic. Busse does best with voters 18-29, where he leads Gianforte 46-40, but the Republican leads by more than 20 points in every other age group.

Democrats nationwide are counting on women to put them over the top, but in Montana Busse trails Giantforte among women by 9 points, 41-50. Gianforte has a 63-30 advantage with male voters as well, and has a commanding lead in every part of the state except the Missoula area, where Busse leads Gianforte 51-41. 

Busse has tried to reinvent himself on the campaign trail, downplaying his support for gun control to the point of absurdity, but outside of the traditional Democratic stronghold of Missoula (home to the University of Montana) and the youngest cohort of voters his campaign is floundering. That helps to explain why Busse is going all in on the college vote in the final weeks of the election. 

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a Governor you can tailgate with? #MontanaStateUniversity #RyanBusseforGovernor pic.twitter.com/Tm0tyXdeFN

— Ryan Busse (@ryandbusse) October 9, 2024

This might be the dumbest pitch I've seen this election cycle, and that's saying a lot. 

We haven't seen a ton of polling in Montana this cycle, but it's remarkable that Busse has essentially been stagnant since he entered the race. The earliest poll I could find was taken back in February, and found Gianforte with a 22 point lead over Busse, the same margin seen in the latest poll from the NYTimes/Siena College. According to the 538 aggregate of polls in the Montana governor's race, Busse's best survey was a poll of 600 likely voters conducted in late August where he trailed Gianforte by 16 points, and even in that survey he couldn't get to 40% with survey respondents.

Unless Gianforte faceplants in the next week's gubernatorial debate with Busse, I'd say the incumbent has this race locked up. Second Amendment advocates will probably still have to deal with Busse's paid testimony in support of various gun control laws after the election is over, but it appears Montanans don't have to worry about an anti-gun activist occupying the governor's office next year.