With the closest presidential race in modern history playing out, the Republican task of taking back the U.S. Senate becomes more and more crucial. On that front, new polling shows a key race leaning heavily toward the GOP. 

Tim Sheehy now leads incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester by a whopping eight points, continuing a trend of strong results for the Republican. Sheehy has also crossed the all-important 50 percent threshold. 

ALSO SEE: Tim Sheehy Demolishes Jon Tester So Badly, the Montana Senate Race May Be Over

Tester down 8 to Sheehy in #mtsen and two long-shot pickup chances out of reach still for Dems at moment, per NYT-Siena polls. With WV gone for Ds, that means a GOP majority if this holds https://t.co/e89xivIYgn pic.twitter.com/GCEskOEqWB

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 10, 2024

With Republican Jim Justice all but assured victory in West Virginia, picking up former Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin's open seat, winning Montana would go a long way to securing the Senate for the GOP. In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno is also gaining ground on incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown. That race is within a point or two, and with Ohio being a red state, there is reason for optimism that Moreno could pull the victory off. 

Surprisingly enough, the danger for the GOP now lies in Nebraska. Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran and union boss, is running as an "independent" and has been garnering a lot of outside cash. That has put incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer on the defensive, with some recent polls showing Osborn with a lead. 

How reliable those are given one was sponsored by Osborn's campaign is questionable, but the GOP is scared enough that they are now dumping money into the state. If Moreno doesn't win in Ohio, losing Nebraska could keep the Senate in Democrat hands depending on who wins the presidential election.

Still, the latest polls shown above do offer some other good news for Republicans. There was some hope among Democrats that they could compete in Texas and Florida, with past polling showing margin of error races there. That hope has largely disappeared, with Ted Cruz sitting at a comfortable four-point lead and Rick Scott cruising toward a blowout. 

As long as Republicans hang on in Nebraska, this thing looks like a wrap. With three weeks left in this election cycle, the GOP has a chance to bombard the airwaves and regain the momentum there. It's imperative they do so, and on that front, several million dollars have been recently earmarked for the race. We'll have to see how it affects things. 

Long story short, you'd rather be a Republican right now regarding taking back the Senate, and the more the GOP can run up the score, the more usable the majority will be. If Kamala Harris were to win, it would end up being the only barrier between her and total destruction of America's institutions, from the Supreme Court to the filibuster to the electoral college. Voters should keep that in mind as they go to the polls. This isn't a time for ticket-splitting in these red states.