This article was originally published on NY Post - Sports. You can read the original article HERE
We’re starting to build some momentum after cashing back-to-back same-game parlays.
Our streak began with a +425 cash in the Buccaneers-Falcons game last Thursday night.
Then, on Monday night, we cashed a +549 ticket in the Saints-Chiefs matchup.
We’ll try to keep that SGP streak alive in Week 6 when the 49ers head to the Emerald City to battle the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.
49ers vs. Seahawks odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -3.5 (-102) | -175 | o47.5 (-112) |
| Seahawks | +3.5 (-118) | +145 | u47.5 (-108) |
49ers vs. Seahawks same-game parlay (+445, DraftKings)
- Leg 1: 49er 1H moneyline (-155)
- Leg 2: Geno Smith under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130)
- Leg 3: George Kittle 40+ receiving yards (-180)
- Leg 4: Jordan Mason 70+ rushing yards (-205)
49ers 1H ML (-155)
Blowing double-digit leads has become a bit of a trend for Kyle Shanahan, whose 49ers had another collapse on Sunday after the Cardinals rallied from a 13-point halftime deficit to win 24-23.
According to the Associated Press, Shanahan has had the most double-digit blown leads (18) since taking the 49ers’ head coaching job in 2017. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree because Shanahan’s father, Mike, has the most double-digit blown leads (33) in NFL history.
Just minutes after losing Super Bowl LVIII, it was the 49ers that opened up as favorites for the upcoming season. However, San Francisco is off to a disappointing 2-3 start despite being loaded with talent.
One way to guard against these meltdowns is to simply back the 49ers on the first-half moneyline. Shanahan is 50-20-6 (71.4%) lifetime as a favorite in this spot, and his record improves to 24-6-2 (80%) when we adjust our parameters to include only road games.
While Seattle might lead the NFC West at 3-2, it has faced the second-softest strength of schedule, according to TeamRankings.
Geno Smith under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130)
The 49ers still garner a ton of respect in the market. FTN Fantasy lists them ninth in Total DVOA and fifth overall defensively.
One common theme in the 49ers’ losses this season is that they’ve struggled against teams that successfully run the ball. San Francisco allowed an average of 137.7 rushing yards in their three defeats.
The Seahawks rank seventh in yards per carry (5.1), and despite having the second-fewest red zone scoring (2.2) chances per game, they’re tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns inside the 20.
Smith has gone under 1.5 passing touchdowns in each game this season, and given Smith’s 5/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, I expect the Seahawks to play conservatively by continuing to hand the ball off once they’re near paydirt.
George Kittle 40+ receiving yards (-180)
Brock Purdy has arguably done enough to put the 49ers in position to win games, given he ranks seventh with a 66.0 Total QBR and has the highest yards per completion (13.6) among quarterbacks with at least four starts this season.
Purdy has built an excellent rapport with Kittle, who has caught 23 of his 29 targets for 225 yards.
Kittle averages 7.25 targets per game, and his three touchdowns are tied for the team lead. Given his success, the least we can expect is for Purdy to continue to target Kittle inside the red zone.
Lastly, Seattle’s defense allows the fifth-most yards per game (59.4) to tight ends, further boosting our chances with Kittle going over this prop.
Jordan Mason 70+ rushing yards (-205)
I love how the 49ers run the ball, with Mason getting the bulk of the carries.
Recently, we’ve seen teams try to share the workload, but Mason has 105 carries (21 per game), while backup Isaac Guerendo has just 12. Mason is averaging 5.1 yards per carry compared to 3.4 for Guerendo.
Betting on the NFL?
The touches will likely be there, and he’s gone over 70 rushing yards in all five games. If he gets his usual workload, we’ll have a great chance to cash the final leg of our ticket.
Best bet: Same-game parlay (+445 at DraftKings)
- Leg 1: 49er 1H moneyline (-155)
- Leg 2: Geno Smith under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130)
- Leg 3: George Kittle 40+ receiving yards (-180)
- Leg 4: Jordan Mason 70+ rushing yards (-205)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
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