After beating the Yankees in Game 2, the Royals return home Wednesday with the ALDS tied at 1-all.

Game 1 went Over the total, but Monday’s Game 2 hit the Under as the Yankees’ powerful lineup was held lifeless for much of night.

While Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is on his way to a second American League MVP award, he’s just 1-for-7 in this series against the Royals.

Judge is a crucial part of this Yankees offense, and if he’s struggling at the plate, we could be in for another low-scoring outcome in Game 3 on Wednesday (7:08 p.m. ET, TBS).

Yankees vs. Royals odds

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Yankees	-118	-1.5 (+145)	o8 (-110)
Royals	-102	+1.5 (-175)	u8 (-110)

Yankees outlook

Even if Nestor Cortes was healthy, I’m not sure he’d be getting the Game 3 start ahead of Clarke Schmidt. After all, Schmidt has a better ERA (2.85 vs. 377) and strikeouts per nine innings (9.8 vs. 8.4).

Cortes has more games under his belt, coupled with three postseason starts. Unfortunately, it’s a moot point as he is still on the injured list with an elbow injury.

Schmidt, who got a taste of the playoffs in 2022 pitching out of the bullpen, is making his postseason starting debut.

He missed more than three months with a lat strain and hasn’t faced the Royals since 2022. That lack of familiarity is what you want, especially when targeting a low-scoring game. 

Kansas City has a below-average offense based on the wRC+ metric (96). With runs at a premium during the postseason, it’s difficult to envision this game as a high-scoring affair. 

Royals outlook

Seth Lugo gets the start for the Royals. At one point, he was my longs hot for the Cy Young award. He has been a quality pitcher since making his debut with the Mets in 2016.

However, the Mets couldn’t quite decide whether Lugo was better suited as a starting pitcher or a reliever. It wasn’t until Lugo landed in San Diego in 2023 that he became a full-time starter. 

After going 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA with the Padres, he went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA with the Royals.

Lugo has held his own against the Yankees. In 96 plate appearances against the right-hander, the Yankees have a .229/.308/.323 slash line. Judge is hitless in eight at-bats against the Royals’ starter.

The righty’s 12.46 K/9 ratio is the best of his career, which includes when he pitched out of the bullpen. Relievers tend to empty the tank and pitch with max velocity and effort because they know they’re facing fewer batters.

According to The Post’s Larry Brooks, Judge has the second-worst strikeout rate (33.9%) among postseason players with at least 200 plate appearances.

For a hitter who’s already struggling in the playoffs, Lugo is the last pitcher Judge would want to face. 

---

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

---

Yankees vs. Royals pick

This total has been all over the place after opening at 8.5, but it has settled in at 8 at most sportsbooks.

There doesn’t seem to be anything alarming in terms of weather, as the wind should be fairly calm blowing out to left field at five mph.

I immediately considered a play on the Under when I saw this matchup. I loved it even more after researching Lugo’s history against the Yankees and further seeing that the Under is 4-0 in his starts.

Best bet: Under 8 runs (-110, DraftKings)

---

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.