A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s defense minister Tuesday said North Korea is strongly considering deploying its own troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, amid reports that there have already been North Korean casualties in the war.

“As Russia and North Korea have signed a mutual treaty akin to a military alliance, the possibility of such a deployment is highly likely,” Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told lawmakers, the Yonhap News Agency reported. 

---

---

North Korea is already accused of supplying munitions and other military aid to the Russian forces, who are locked in a bloody war of attrition in eastern and southern Ukraine more than two years after invading Ukraine in February 2022. Now, some North Korean troops appear to be deployed on the ground in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, according to recent reports from Kyiv. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a strategic partnership during the latter’s July visit to Pyongyang, though its scope is unclear: Mr Kim called it an “alliance,” Mr. Putin did not.

Both South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies say they have seen evidence that Pyongyang has helped the strapped Russian forces with artillery munitions and missiles. In August, Seoul estimated that over 13,000 containers had been shipped. Mr. Kim, the defense minister, told lawmakers Tuesday he considered the reports accurate.

Late last week, the Kyiv Post reported that six North Koreans had been among the 20 soldiers “eliminated” in a missile strike in Ukraine’s occupied Donetsk region. The newspaper, citing intelligence sources, said three more North Koreans were wounded.

The newspaper also reported that Russian sources on Telegram — the social media platform widely used by both sides in the war — claimed that Russian officers had been briefing the North Koreans on assault and defensive tactics.

Last year, Ukrainian intelligence officials said North Korean engineering troops had arrived in Russian-occupied areas. There has also been considerable discussion on Russian TV since Mr. Kim and Mr. Putin held a summit in the Russian Far East last year over whether North Korea might send troops or laborers into Ukraine.

Fighting a full-scale war marked by drone swarms, massed fires and infantry “meat assaults,” Russian President Vladimir Putin is straining to sustain his campaign in Ukraine — particularly manpower — in the face of determined Ukrainian resistance. Last month, Mr. Putin ordered a 180,000-manpower increase in his army’s size, bringing the country’s total forces to 1.5 million, the world’s second-largest army after China’s. But that expansion may not boost operations in Ukraine, where the Kremlin, fearing the political blowback, has not deployed conscripts on the front lines in Ukraine.

Instead, it has relied on one mobilization of reservists and a constantly replenished force of contracted volunteers, or “kontraktniki.”

Last month, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, cited Ukrainian sources as saying that though Russian local governments are raising payments to kontraktniki, supply is drying up.

Working with others

North Korea — one of the world’s poorest countries, which nevertheless boasts an estimated 1.2 million disciplined, well-trained troops — might offer one solution.

In a message congratulating Mr. Putin on his 72nd birthday Tuesday, Mr. Kim called him his “closest comrade.” But experts say there is no indication that North Korea’s populace or its military is being prepped to fight in a war far from the Korean peninsula.

“North Korea really likes a narrative, and there is no narrative to take part in war for now,” said Yang Uk, a security expert with Seoul think tank the Asan Institute. “Right now, they are worried about their own security, so cannot afford to send large units outside North Korea.”

The Ukraine War has made clear the mind-boggling complexity of synchronizing signals, intelligence, reconnaissance and electronic warfare assets with combat units and guided weapons. The U.S. military goes to great lengths to ensure it can work with allied forces. That is not the case for North Korea.

The country uses Russian-standard arms, but its troops have little to no experience coordinating with another country’s military.

“They don’t get the training, or have the understanding, of what it takes to do all that kind of integration you need to go into battle,” said Robert Collins, a 50-year North Korea watcher who advises U.S. forces on North Korean intelligence. “They do not have the experience to pass on to current officers who are capable of doing modern warfare.”

Even so, North Korea has gained some overseas operational and combat experience since the Korean War ended in 1953.

There were reports that North Korean special forces, operating as advisers or direct-action militias, fought in support of the Russian-backed Assad regime in Syria’s brutal civil war.

In the 1980s, troops deployed to countries in Africa and Central America, usually acting as advisors, and Pyongyang also sent jet pilots and advisors to Cairo and Damascus in their 1967 and 1973 wars with Israel. Similar deployments were made to Hanoi during the Vietnam War.

However, Mr. Collins, author of an upcoming book on North Korea’s sabotage arm, the Reconnaissance General Bureau, said that the largest unit Pyongyang has deployed overseas in recent years was company strength, or approximately 120 men.

Still, Pyongyang may see value in a small, low-visibility deployment: Not simply for Russian payment, but also for the battlefield skills its troops may acquire.

“For North Korea to efficiently operate its KM-23 missiles you need special forces to go in deep on ground reconnaissance,” said Mr. Yang, referring to North Korea’s version of Russia’s Iskander short-range ballistic missiles. “North Korea is dying to have chances in real combat.”

Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general, warns that North Korean troops should not be underestimated.

“They are more than capable,” he said. “They do not have interoperability experience, but they can use liaison teams to overcome that.”

Like other analysts, however, the former general questioned North Korea’s ability to deploy mass overseas.

“It depends on the size and role of the units,” he said.