An assumption made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) in its most recent report is that the warming caused by the increase in long-wave back radiation was due solely to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

The IPCC attributes 100% of the warming to this effect and justifies this with model calculations.  However, a study published in 2021 proved this to be incorrect.

The analysis of the measured data by Rolf Dübal and Fritz Vahrenholt showed that the warming due to the decrease of short-wave radiation and the increase in long-wave radiation is mainly attributable to the cloud effect.

“The direct aerosol effect is rather small, but the indirect effect via the cloud formation may be larger,” the researchers noted in their peer-reviewed paper.

The two researchers investigated the Earth’s radiation balance over the last 20 years in a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Atmosphere in September 2021. The study titled ‘Radiative Energy flux variation from 2001 – 2020’ brought to light that the warming of the Earth in the last 20 years is mainly due to a higher permeability of clouds for short-wave solar radiation. The authors came to this clear conclusion after evaluating the CERES radiation data.

“The warming of the last 20 years has been caused more by change in the clouds than by the classical greenhouse effect,” they said.

Adding, “The time span of 20 years is still too short to be able to decide conclusively whether the current heating phase is a temporary or permanent development. In the former case, climate forecasts will have to be fundamentally revised.”

The study is technical and difficult for a layman to understand.  However, Vahrenholt and Dübal explained what it all means in an article which you can read HERE.  Dr. Joseph Fourier recently highlighted the study’s findings on LinkedIn.  We have copied his post below.

The warming of the last 20 years has its essential cause in the change of the clouds

By Joseph Fornier

Quite literally, this information will be the most important news you will hear all day.

This recent study (‘Radiative Energy Flux Variation from 2001–2020’) conclusively demonstrates that increasing sunshine has been the cause of all surface warming in the 21st century and that declining cloud coverage is releasing infrared (“IR”) radiation (heat) twice as fast as the rate by which the theoretical greenhouse gas effect is claimed to trap heat in the lower troposphere.

[Related: Prof. Murry Salby: Atmospheric carbon is not a pollutant and humans cannot regulate it]

Yes, you heard that correctly.

Satellite measurements show that less short wavelength (“SW”) radiation is being reflected (+ve flux down) through the top of the atmosphere (“TOA”) over the past two decades. Total increase in sunshine is 1.42 Watts per square meter.

Likewise, more long wavelength (“LW”) is being emitted through the TOA as cloud coverage has declined, given clouds act to trap heat in the lower troposphere. True greenhouse effect. The increase in LW emissions is 1.1 Watts per square meter.

In other words, there is no empirical evidence that rising CO₂ (carbon dioxide) or CH₄ (methane) is giving rise to the measured changes in weather. It is all due to changes in cloud dynamics and sunshine.

No wonder the UN, WEF and numerous G7 governments (e.g., Canada) are advocating for the suppression of dissenting voices on attributions of climate change and are dismantling weather stations at an accelerating pace.

About the Author

Joseph Fournier, PhD, is a Canadian research scientist and an accomplished executive, with a 15-year track record in the oil sands, power generation and environmental science industries, both in Canada and in the United States. He is currently enjoying life as a rancher near Rockyford, Alberta.

Featured image: A cumulonimbus cloud. Source: What Is a Cumulonimbus Cloud? All the Science, 21 May 2024