A Republican has not won a U.S. Senate election in New Jersey since 1972. New Jersey is a Democratic stronghold in the Northeast — it has been for decades. Tuesday’s primary brought hope that voters could change that, with Curtis Bashaw winning decidedly over Trump-endorsed Christine Serrano Glassner. Bashaw is a local business owner and real estate developer. 

The decisive win for Bashaw means the electorate could get behind a single candidate against Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ), the Democratic nominee. The path to victory is also more open due to Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), the Democratic incumbent, filing to run as an independent candidate. Menendez has spent the past year fighting bribery allegations and 16 federal corruption charges on trial. Speculation that Menendez will only split the Democratic vote increased when on the way to trial following his independent filing, he said in Spanish, “No, ‘independent’ doesn’t mean I’m changing [parties].”

Despite missing former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Bashaw outraised Glassner, $1.4 million to $475,000. Both candidates self-funded large portions of their campaigns, with Bashaw kicking in $800,000 to Glassner’s $300,000 at the mid-May filing. Glassner’s endorsements didn’t matter because she did not have the money to tell anyone about them. 

Menendez jumping into the race may have destroyed the chances of Democrats to hold the seat. Menendez filed his petition despite only needing 800 signatures to get on the ballot, with over 2,500 signatures. This shows a possible willingness of favorability for the incumbent despite legal woes.

Since October, Menendez has dumped nearly $4.9 million in campaign funds on legal fees, according to Federal Election Commission filings. He has about $3.5 million cash on hand and few contributions coming into his campaign. The filing deadline for an independent candidacy is Tuesday, but candidates have until Aug. 16 to withdraw from the race. In doing this, they can avoid appearing on the ballot. If Menendez were to be convicted before then, he would be able to end his candidacy in time to remove his name from the ballot. Yet if he goes unconvicted, he would certainly continue his candidacy. This could exacerbate the woes for the Democrats. 

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What will the Democrats do to keep the Senate? Several legal experts argue that President Joe Biden could offer to pardon Menendez to force him out of the race and avoid splitting the vote. Such a pardon would shield him from Stock Act penalties. The Stock Act takes away retirement benefits from members of Congress who have been convicted of corruption-related felonies. 

This culmination of disarray for the Democrats and a stomping of the other Republicans in the race could allow a perfect storm for Bashaw to take a Senate seat. No matter what, it will be a tough road to the general election, but these factors make possible for a clear shake-up to New Jersey politics. This makes possible a Republican senator from New Jersey.