Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is trailing his Republican challenger, Bozeman businessman and political newcomer Tim Sheehy, by five-plus points (50 percent to 44.8 percent), according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Even a poll earlier this month from the Montana branch of the leftist AARP shows Sheehy ahead of the three-term Democrat by six percentage points (51 percent to 45 percent) in a head-to-head matchup. Older Montana voters, according to the poll, favor the former Navy Seal by a whopping 57 percent to 40 percent. 

Despite outraising and outspending the upstart 3 to 1, Tester and his nervous Senate Democrats have seen the critical — and costly — Montana race slide from a “toss up” to “lean Republican,” according to Cook Political Report’s recent pronouncement.  

No wonder Tester, the lone surviving Democrat to hold statewide office in the Big Sky State, is eschewing anything to do with leftist Vice President Kamala Harris and her presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. The Democrat Party’s manufactured dream team is running nearly 18 points behind former president Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, in a state expected to play a critical role in helping Republicans take back control of the Senate. 

Tester has not only refused to endorse the far-left Dem ticket, he skipped last month’s Democratic National Convention altogether. Instead, he spent Wednesday evening of the convention, when Walz accepted the VP nomination, at a fundraiser with Pearl Jam’s bassist, Jeff Ament, who grew up in Big Sandy, Montana, Tester’s hometown, according to NBC News. The senator, first elected in 2006, was Montana’s only Democrat delegate of 25 to withhold his vote supporting Harris’ nomination, according to Montana Public Radio. 

‘This isn’t About National Politics’

Tester’s campaign did not return The Federalist’s request for comment, but at a press conference last month the senator with the Howie Long flat top insisted he would not endorse anyone in the presidential contest because he was concentrating on his own race. 

“And No. 2, folks have wanted to nationalize this race, and this isn’t about national politics. This is about Montana,” he said. 

Tester is either delusional or lying. Montana’s Senate race, expected to be the most expensive in state history, is being closely watched by opportunistic Republicans and trembling Democrats. According to Open Secrets, the incumbent had raked in nearly $43 million as of June 30, the Federal Election Commission’s last reporting period, while Sheehy had raised nearly $14 million. Those numbers were expected to rise significantly over the latest fund-raising period, which wraps up at the end of the month. 

Tester’s Senate seat is among the more vulnerable for Democrats, who hold a narrow 51-49 majority, His defeat could put Republicans back in power and end the far-left reign of Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., as majority leader of the upper house. A new YouGov analysis of every congressional race projects Republicans favored to take back the Senate and Democrats with the edge to regain the House. 

As politically moribund PINO (President In Name Only) Joe Biden would say, Montana is a big (expletive) deal. 

‘Montanans Won’t Forget’

The Big Sky State has been turning a deeper shade of red in recent years. While Democrats and their allies have dumped a lot of money into a campaign to vilify Sheehy, the state still boasts a high percentage of self-identified Republicans. 

Tester is in trouble, and his phony show as a moderate who places country above party isn’t selling like it used to, his opponents say. Neither, they assert, is his desperate act to distance himself from Harris, whom he warmly endorsed for vice president in 2020,  

“My friend @KamalaHarris is a proven fighter and an excellent pick for Vice President. As VP, I’m confident she will continue to fight for working families across this country. Looking forward to supporting her and @JoeBiden in November,” Tester wrote in an August 2020 post Twitter at the time. 

The Montana senator reportedly encouraged Harris to run for Senate in California. She went on to win, posting one of the most liberal voting records in Congress. 

“Montanans won’t forget that Jon Tester recruited Kamala Harris to run for U.S. Senate, endorsed her as Joe Biden’s running mate, and voted for her dangerously liberal agenda 95 percent of the time,” Montana GOP Chairman Don “K” Kaltschmidt said in an email response to The Federalist’s questions. 

“Not only does Two-Faced Tester stand with Kamala Harris, but Tester also hates President Trump. He voted to impeach President Trump twice, and said President Trump should be punched in the face,” added Kaltschmidt. 

Sheehy’s campaign said Tester is committed to the same leftist agenda that Harris has helped lead.  

“His voting record is his endorsement of the failed Harris agenda, and every time Montanans needed him to stop the insanity in Washington, he was the deciding vote to further her progressive Liberal agenda,” the Sheehy campaign said in an email response to The Federalist. “That same agenda has made costs for things like groceries and gas skyrocket, it’s brought us record high inflation, and has given us a wide-open southern border that has brought crime and deadly drugs into our communities.”

Matt Kittle is a senior elections correspondent for The Federalist. An award-winning investigative reporter and 30-year veteran of print, broadcast, and online journalism, Kittle previously served as the executive director of Empower Wisconsin.