With less than two months before Election Day on November 5, 2024, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are stuck in a dead heat.

According to a recently published Rasmussen poll, 47% of likely United States voters would pull the lever for Trump in November. By contrast, 46% would vote for Harris. 

3% indicated that they’d vote for some other candidate and an additional 3% are unsure. 87% of Republican voters chose Trump and 84% of Democrats chose Harris. Among independent voters, Trump enjoys a 46% to 41% advantage over Harris. 

51% of white voters, 29% of black voters, 52% of Hispanic voters, and 40% of non-black minorities would pull the lever for Trump. By contrast, 44% of white voters, 67% of black voters, 42% of Hispanic voters, and 41% of non-black minorities would pull the lever for Harris. 

87% of self-identified liberal voters would pull the lever for Harris, whereas 74% of conservative voters would vote for Trump. Among moderate voters, Harris enjoys 53% of support to Trump’s 38%.

As far as socio-economic categories are concerned, Harris enjoys a 10-point advantage – 53% to 43% – among voters making over $200,000 annually, while Trump holds a similar 10-point advantage among voters with yearly incomes between $30,000 and $50,000.

Trump’s path to success is pretty straightforward this election cycle: Pander to white working class voters in the Rust Belt. 

He can do so by making the election about immigration restriction, anti-white hate, and going after banks and other corporate entities for their predatory business practices.  That’s essentially the 2016 format. If Trump sticks to that, it will be smooth sailing in this election cycle.