One of the more confusing things about this election cycle is the total disconnect between what the polls are showing--a race with Kamala Harris slightly but consistently ahead--and all the other data we see with our own eyes. 

Pollsters find lots of people who have swung heavily toward Kamala Harris despite the same people thinking she was an ineffective and vapid Vice President two months ago. 

But then you see reporters in search of Harris voters, and they are pretty scarce on the ground. There are even accounts on Twitter tracking the cell phones of attendees at Harris rallies, which show that many of the people attending aren't local and seem to show up at a remarkable number of these events, suggesting they are bussed in. 

Then you see focus groups like this one:

NEW: Black undecided voters in Georgia say the economy was better under Donald Trump, think Kamala Harris is weak.

The focus group was conducted by Daily Mail pollster J.L. Partners' James Johnson.

The voters voiced their concerns that Harris is a "weak" leader who keeps… pic.twitter.com/RepUj7QM6n

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 20, 2024

Black voters in Georgia put Joe Biden in the White House, but they sure don't seem that excited about Kamala Harris. Granted, these are "undecided" voters and hence not a representative sample of every black voter in Georgia, but the lack of enthusiasm for Harris is remarkable. 

It's not that they don't have opinions about her; they aren't ignorant. They think she is weak and stupid, and obviously, they are right to do so. Harris is weak and stupid. 

This might be my favorite clip from the entire election cycle. CBS visited voters at a diner in Washoe County, NV that went for Biden by about 4.5% in 2020. CBS could only find one Harris supporter. Here's what the rest had to say:

"Illegals — they gotta go."

"I'm extremely… pic.twitter.com/ThxtVJDEJH

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) September 17, 2024

It's not just black voters. Once you exit the blue bubble there just isn't a lot of excitement about Harris. She has enormous quantities of money to spend and is up on TV everywhere (I can't wait to see the campaign finance investigations after the election!), but actual voters seem scarce. 

I think the polls show a different picture because their model of the electorate is wrong. They aren't picking up what I suspect is a significant change in who intends to vote, and Trump voters are less likely to talk to pollsters. 

Am I whistling past the graveyard as the election odds seem to have shifted Kamala's way? 

Who knows? I just hope that Republicans have a good election integrity game going. 

Updated: Non-citizens added to states’ voter rolls through DMV, even after admitting lack of US citizenship https://t.co/xfQZp1cdIb

— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) September 23, 2024