ER Editor: There’s something odd happening, and patterns off oddness keep repeating themselves. In other words, when polls show elections results should go one way, at the last minute, they go the other.

A reminder that the June 9 European elections showed a broad sweep of support for the populist right. The first round of the French elections at the end of June reflected this, but polls mysteriously swung in support of the far left coalition 45 minutes before the polls closed on July 7 in the final round of voting. France ended up with a crazy far left coalition instead of Le Pen, who got the support of the majority of voters (around 11 million).

A reminder that the leftist French parties, 4 of them, had ganged up effortlessly before the final round of the election to create a ‘Republican front’ against Le Pen. Macron’s party helped them with this. Democracy in action.

A final poll for the German state of Brandenburg, showed the AfD to be ahead of the SPD (left) before yesterday’s election, although to be fair only by a single percentage point. See this from 3 days ago —

Brandenburg Polling Shows AfD Poised for Historic Victory

The final poll before the state election in Brandenburg shows the race on a knife edge, as the right-wing anti-establishment Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) hopes to cause a major upset by beating Germany’s governing Social Democrats (SPD) in one of their heartlands.

Polling by the ZDF Politbarometer Extra put the AfD on 28%, one point ahead of the SPD. Meanwhile, the opposition centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) are fighting for third place with the new left-wing nationalist party Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). The poll puts them on 14% and 13% respectively. All other parties are below the 5% threshold required to enter the Brandenburg parliament.

A reminder that Brandenburg was the third state in the former East Germany to go to the polls in September. Thuringia, on September 1, saw the AfD come in first, while it came a very close second to the CDU, Merkel’s old party, in Saxony on the same day.

Notice in the Politico report below, we have the CDU premier of SAXONY, not Brandenburg, who’s from the political centre-right, publicly endorse the left (SPD) in Brandenburg. Shades of France. Journalist Boris Reitschuster makes this point —

Translation: The CDU, like the FDP, has politically emasculated itself. By calling for its own people to vote for the SPD, rather than trying to show off in the “fight against the far-right”, the CDU has stabilized the traffic light coalition and saved Scholz’s life. You can’t make this up!

Die CDU hat sich, ebenso wie die FDP, politisch selbst entmannt. Indem ihre eigenen Leute zur Wahl der SPD aufgerufen haben, vor lauter vorauseilendem Männchenmachen im “Kampf gegen rechts”, hat sie die Ampel stabilisiert und Scholz Kopf und Kragen gerettet. Kann man sich nicht…

— Boris Reitschuster (@reitschuster) September 22, 2024

Translation: Election fraud  3 1/2 months lie between the European elections & #Landtagswahlen in #Brandenburg . 3 1/2 months of disastrous #Ampel politics. The #SPD improves its result by 17.8%, thanks to #Woidke !? Who is supposed to believe that? Something is not right here!

Wahlbetrug⁉️

3 1/2 Monate liegen zwischen den Europawahlen & #Landtagswahlen in #Brandenburg.
3 1/2 Monate desaströse #Ampel Politik.
Die #SPD verbessert ihr Ergebnis um 17,8%, dank #Woidke !?

Wer soll das glauben?
Irgendwas stimmt hier nicht!#Nachricht #AfD #Wahlbetrug pic.twitter.com/XIUyDk3XaL

— Victorius ✌️ (@Victorius_DE) September 23, 2024

Translation: I don’t understand this. I really don’t. 

Ich verstehe das nicht. Wirklich nicht.#Brandenburg pic.twitter.com/1vcK2RdPIX

— Zora (@Zora_im_Exil) September 21, 2024

Translation: The Germans are being fooled. That is the correct result! 

Der germans lassen sich verarschen. Der ist der korrekte ergebnis! #Hochrechnungen #Brandenburg #Brandenburgwahl24 pic.twitter.com/c18tlzXH4B

— texacaner (@texacaner1996) September 22, 2024

Translation: How different can two election results be within three months? #Brandenburg : hold my beer

Wie unterschiedlich können zwei Wahlergebnisse innerhalb von drei Monaten sein? #Brandenburg: hold my beer pic.twitter.com/owgDka76T9

— Dominik Ritter-Wurnig (@DominikWurnig) September 22, 2024

The AfD themselves seem happy with the result, seeing evident gains among voters for their party. Krah is an MEP (European Parliament) for the AfD. 

Translation: The evaluation of the election in #Brandenburg is a celebration for #AfD ! The young, the workers and the self-employed are voting for us. AfD is being voted for out of conviction, SPD only to prevent AfD. The CDU is finished, its firewall is ruining it. Even if we have not yet become the strongest force and the blocking minority is shaky – the individual data show our strength and further considerable potential. Dear @HCBerndt, you have managed to break a dam!

Die Auswertung der Wahl in #Brandenburg ist ein Fest für die #AfD! Uns wählen die Jungen, die Arbeiter & Selbständigen. AfD wird aus Überzeugung gewählt, SPD nur, um AfD zu verhindern. Die CDU ist erledigt, ihre Brandmauer ruiniert sie. Auch wenn wir noch nicht stärkste Kraft… pic.twitter.com/b6fPB0vlU4

— Dr. Maximilian Krah MdEP (@KrahMax) September 22, 2024

The European Conservative is also seeing the glass half-full —

Huge Success For Populist Parties in Brandenburg

Germany’s ruling Social Democrats (SPD) managed to narrowly win the regional elections in the eastern state of Brandenburg on Sunday, September 22nd, but the result once again highlights the decline of the mainstream parties, and the rise of right-wing and left-wing populists who are growing in popularity all across the country due to the government’s incompetent handling of the migration and cost-of-living crisis.

According to the latest count the Social Democrats, who have governed Brandenburg since the end of communist rule in East Germany in 1990, received 30.9% of the votes, a 4.5-point increase compared to their result five years ago.

The right-wing anti-globalist AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) are runners-up with 29.2%, rising from 23.5% in 2019. This is another electoral success for the party which only three weeks ago won its first ever election, the state election in Thuringia, and came a close second in another eastern state, Saxony. Co-leader of the party Alice Weidel was “extremely satisfied” with the result, saying “we are the strongest force in the East.”

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