Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa.) is warning Democrats not to underestimate Donald Trump's strong support in Pennsylvania, which is widely believed to be this year’s tipping-point state At the Atlantic Festival, he told Jeffrey Goldberg the race would be closer than many Democrats believe, noting that Trump’s influence has increased since his recent assassination attempt at a rally in the state.

Reflecting on his past experiences, Fetterman warned that Democrats should not take victory for granted.

First, he recounted his first statewide race in 2016, where he actively supported Hillary Clinton. He remarked, “Back then, I was very committed…. I went wherever they asked.” Yet, he quickly realized something was amiss. “Trump’s signs became like the state flower,” he joked, illustrating the overwhelming presence of Trump’s campaign. Despite the prevailing confidence, he sensed trouble, noting that many thought the race was in the bag, which proved to be a dangerous underestimation.

His concern turned out to be legitimate, as Trump won Pennsylvania by a mere 45,000 votes, “changing the course of history,” he observed.

“That’s not just a small margin; it was part of a much larger narrative in Michigan and Wisconsin, where just 75,000 votes flipped the blue wall,” he added. 

Fetterman also said he knew that Biden’s lead in 2020 wasn’t as strong as the polls indicated. “I said the same thing in 2020. People thought Biden had a 4 or 5-point margin, but that’s not true.” His instincts proved accurate as the election turned out to be much closer than expected.

Related: Tim Walz Drops a Truth Bomb That Could Sink Kamala Harris’s Campaign

Now, as we gear up for 2024, Fetterman’s tone has shifted dramatically. While he previously believed Harris could secure Pennsylvania, he is no longer as confident. “I maintain that there’s nothing we as Democrats can say or do that Trump hasn’t already defiled himself with,” he remarked. “People understand who he is, and enough think that’s a feature, not a bug.” 

.@SenFettermanPA breaks down his view of the ground game in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections—and how close the race between Harris and Trump is—in conversation with @TheAtlantic’s @JeffreyGoldberg.

Watch the full #TAF24 session: https://t.co/7Kc4LIQ2I8 pic.twitter.com/OGyaFrQdzc

— AtlanticLIVE (@AtlanticLIVE) September 19, 2024

This is not the first time Fetterman has suggested that the election in Pennsylvania would be really close, but he also said he believed Kamala would ultimately win.

 "I think if you match up Trump and Harris, which I think that's really what that this is really about, and I do believe [she’s] gonna win Pennsylvania,” he said back in August. “And, of course, it's gonna be close, but I've been maintaining that whether it's Biden, whether it was Clinton, or whether now it's with vice president Harris. It's gonna be very close, and I do believe she's gonna prevail.”

Fetterman, of course, also believed that Biden would win Pennsylvania, despite the unmistakable signs of Trump’s strength there. Before Joe Biden dropped out, Donald Trump held a nearly five-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average in the state, which was huge considering that "old Scranton Joe" has deep roots in the state yet was still struggling to keep up.

It’s also worth noting here that Fetterman may be somewhat responsible if Kamala Harris loses his state. He lobbied hard against her picking Gov. Josh Shapiro, and it is widely believed that had she picked Shapiro, she’d have a more consistent and solid lead in the state.