Democrats are hoping that fallout from allegations that North Carolina’s Republican nominee for governor, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, made graphic comments on a pornography forum more than ten years ago could threaten President Trump’s prospects for winning the critical swing state. 

On Thursday, CNN reported that Mr. Robinson had made lewd comments online including that he likes “watching tranny on girl porn,” and racially incendiary comments about slavery. Mr. Robinson on Thursday forcefully claimed that the posts, which CNN linked to him through a shared username, email address, and biographical details, are fabricated, and he pledged to stay in the gubernatorial race last night.

These are “wild, sensational and politically damaging accusations,” a Republican strategist, Matthew Bartlett, tells the Sun, “which are just compounding from a long track record for somebody who seems outside the box of electoral politics.”

Thursday afternoon there were reports from Republican circles that Mr. Robinson might withdraw, potentially being replaced by Trump’s daughter in law, Lara Trump, or her co-chairman at the Republican National Committee, Michael Whatley. Ms. Trump and Mr. Whatley are both from North Carolina.

Only the deadline to withdraw from the gubernatorial race was 12 am Friday, and Mr. Robinson had not withdrawn by the time the clock tolled at midnight.

Mr. Bartlett tells the Sun the situation has now morphed into a “nightmare” for the Trump campaign, as North Carolina may be a must-win state for Trump to reach 270 Electoral College votes in November. 

“So now being the nominee, now being, you know, just days away from a general election, his nightmare is turning into a nightmare for Trump in North Carolina, and candidly speaking, a potential pathway to the White House” for Vice President Harris, Mr.  Bartlett says. 

Mr. Robinson, who first gained fame after a YouTube video of him defending gun rights at a Greensboro City Council meeting went viral in 2018, has always been an unconventional, politically incorrect politician dogged by unsavory accusations about his past. Though wildly popular with his base, he has been badly trailing North Carolina’s Democratic attorney general, Josh Stein, in governor’s race polls, even as other polls have shown Trump slightly ahead or tied with Ms. Harris. 

Though a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won North Carolina since 2008, when Black voters in the eastern part of the state turned out in droves for President Obama, Democrats are pouncing on the chance to put Trump’s connection to Mr. Robinson in the spotlight. Ms. Harris’s campaign immediately put out a video compiling clips of Trump praising Mr. Robinson and a campaign spokesman also quickly posted a picture of the pair together. The Democratic National Committee is already planning to launch an advertisement push highlighting Trump’s former praise of Mr. Robinson, NBC News reported. 

Having a “massive” and “sensational” scandal explode with the state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate — and one who already has a long track record of other issues — is part of a “compounding and compounding and compounding of issues,” Mr. Bartlett says. 

“This was a razor close race in 2020, this is projected to be a razor close race right now,” he says. “I’m sure there could be more oppo coming. If Trump loses North Carolina, it’s going to become virtually impossible to make up in other places. “ 

Yet it’s far from clear how much of a “reverse coattails” effect — in which down-ballot candidates affect the top of the party’s ticket — the scandal will have. North Carolina has a long history of splitting tickets. The state now has a two-term Democratic governor and a deeply conservative legislature with a Republican supermajority. 

Furthermore, Mr. Robinson has been the center of escalating controversies for years over his past comments on social issues and his rocky personal finances and business affairs. It’s not clear if this latest scandal surrounding his past will make much of a difference.

And even as Democrats are hoping Mr. Robinson will be the rare example of “reverse coattails” actually affecting a race, some political strategists say it’s unlikely. 

“Probably a stretch to expect any ‘reverse coattails,’” as Nate Silver noted on X after the reports about Mr. Robinson broke. “But you also have to imagine that Harris will be running ads of Trump endorsing Mark Robinson in heavy rotation.”

“No one in the Trump world thinks this is helpful,” Mr. Bartlett says. “In a close election. You know, things are either helpful or hurtful, and let’s just be clear, this is very, very hurtful.”

The reports about Mr. Robinson’s pornographic comments are also “devastating” to Mr. Robinson , a veteran Republican strategist in North Carolina, Carter Wrenn, tells the Sun. 

“I think they’re pretty devastating on Robinson, and I think that he had a character problem already. You know, if you look at the attacks on Robinson, they’ve all been about character, not issues,” he says, referring to an ad against Mr. Robinson that shows him saying that abortions are about women killing a child” because they “weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down.”

Asked whether the scandal could affect Trump’s prospects in the case, he said usually down ballot candidates “don’t,” but this time “it’s possible.” For one, Mr. Robinson’s recent polling numbers that show him losing by 14 percentage points could potentially “impact a point or two at the top of the ballot,” he says.

“The other factor is, with the independent voters, the swing voters, they don’t like Robinson’s character, they don’t like Trump’s character either. And, you know, they broke to Trump in the past because they didn’t like the guy against him,” he says, noting that Ms. Harris has made progress though since voters don’t know as much about her. “We could have a situation where independents are looking at Trump and Robinson saying, I don’t like either. With that combination, that could impact the presidential race.”

Because the presidential race is a “world of its own,” though, he says it’s hard to know for sure what the effect of the scandal will be. 

“My view is that you just look at it and you assume Robinson is probably not going to affect the presidential race,” he says, “but you keep your eye on it because it could, because both of them have character problems, and that could affect the independents, the ticket splitters.”

The Sun reached out to a representative of Mr. Robinson’s campaign for comment.