A new poll places the Democratic challenger, Representative Colin Allred, ahead of Senator Cruz for the first time, heating up an already fierce Senate race in Texas.  

According to a survey of nearly 3,000 likely voters, conducted by Morning Consult between September 9 and September 18, Mr. Allred is edging out the incumbent senator by 1 percent — securing 45 percent of the vote compared to Mr. Cruz’s 44 percent. The numbers are within the poll’s two-point margin of error. 

Mr. Allred was quick to call out the win, posting on X: “For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don’t know about y’all but I’m fired up and ready to WIN! We’ve got 47 days, let’s do this Texas.” 

While previous polls consistently placed Mr. Cruz ahead of his challenger, the gap between the candidates was steadily shrinking. The numbers from a Morning Consult survey conducted between August 30 and September 8 placed the incumbent senator five points ahead of Mr. Allred. 

If Mr. Allred wins the race, it would mark the first time in more than three decades that Texas has not elected a Republican candidate to represent the state in the U.S. Senate. Mr. Cruz narrowly beat out his Democratic challenger, Beto O’Rourke, by 2.6 percent in 2018 — marking the tightest Senate race in Texas since 1978. 

Mr. Allred, who boasts an endorsement from Representative Liz Cheney, a Republican, has focused on courting independents and moderates during his campaign. His strategy marks a distinct departure from that of Mr. O’Rourke, who worked to generate a strong progressive coalition. 

Although the Cook Political Report predicts that Mr. Cruz is likely to win the race and secure his third term as senator, the latest numbers have Republicans biting their fingernails. 

“What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas?” a senior campaign adviser to President Trump, Chris LaCivita, wrote on X.  “I think i know …and i think i know his name ….time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz.” 

While Mr. Cruz has, in total, raised more money than his opponent, Mr. Allred is getting closer to eliminating the gap, earning more in donations than the incumbent every quarter since he entered the race. 

The two candidates are slated to face each other in a debate for the first time on October 15.