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Now that former President Donald Trump has been convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records, one question looms — will the presumptive GOP nominee for president spend anytime behind bars?
The question varies depending on who is asked.
According to NBC News, two experts say a jail sentence is not likely given Trump’s age and lack of a criminal record.
A third expert, however, said it is “substantially” likely the former president could see jail time.
Trump was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records which can result in a fine, probation or up to four years in prison per count.
Former federal prosecutor Chuck Rosenberg, an NBC News analyst, said he doesn’t expect Judge Juan Merchan to sentence the 77-year-old Trump to serve time in jail.
“I’d be very surprised if there’s any sentence of incarceration at all,” Rosenberg said. “Of course, he did spend a good bit of time insulting the judge who has the authority to incarcerate him.”
Trump will be sentenced July 11.
Arthur Aidala, a former prosecutor in the Brooklyn district attorney’s office and now a defense lawyer, said Merchan will probably look at similar cases for guidance.
“He wants to know before he sentences someone what the typical sentence is,” Aidala said.
Aidala said he believes whatever the sentence will be “a non-jail disposition.”
According to an analysis by Norm Eisen, only 1 in 10 people who have been convicted of falsifying business records are imprisoned. Those cases typically involved other crimes.
Eisen worked for House Democrats during Trump’s first impeachment.
However, Ron Kuby, a veteran New York criminal defense lawyer, said jail time is possible.
“Judge Merchan is known for being a harsh sentencer when it comes to white-collar crimes committed by people who have wealth and privilege and power,” he said.
Kuby said “it is substantially likely Judge Merchan will sentence Trump to jail or prison time.”
This could happen even though there are logistical and practical complications given what the Secret Service protection would entail.
Kuby pointed to how Trump’s behavior went on for over a year and included a number of bad acts.
“It’s an entire course of conduct he was involved with — not just one bad decision,” he said.
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