The Trump and Harris campaigns are circling one another warily in Pennsylvania, the site of issues, politicians, and voters who may hold the ultimate sway over November’s elections. That’s good news for former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll.

For months, observers have predicted that the presidential contest will come down to the Keystone State, home to personalities like Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) and Governor Josh Shapiro, the short-list contender for vice president who was ultimately passed over by Kamala Harris. Fetterman, a progressive darling who has upset the apple cart by moving to the middle on some key issues, even predicted that Trump would carry the state. And Harris herself is rushing to amend her position on fracking, a controversial method of natural gas production that employs hundreds of thousands in Pennsylvania. Add all that up, and the contest is starting to favor President Trump, according to InsiderAdvantage Polling.

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A survey of 800 likely Pennsylvania voters found that Trump bests Harris by 2%, or 50% to 48%, if the election were held today. President Trump is far outpacing GOP Senate nominee Dave McCormick, who is only garnering 44% against incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) at 49%. Just 1% of voters prefer another presidential option while 1% remain undecided; the former result shows that, without Robert F. Kennedy on the statewide ballot, the former candidate’s supporters may indeed be flocking to Trump, whom he endorsed. The tightening circle of undecided voters may also be breaking Trump’s way, as evidenced by post-debate panels broadcast last week.

📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: @InsiderPolling

🟥 Trump: 50% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 48%
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Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 49% (+5)
🟥 McCormick: 44%
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#86 (2.0/3.0) | 800 LV | 9/14-15 | ±3.46%https://t.co/6uRWwQj7rP pic.twitter.com/xgnSpBBfNQ

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 17, 2024

The Harris campaign’s decision to forgo Gov. Shapiro may be a pivotal decision in the outcome of the election. Allies close to the vice president privately admitted that selecting Shapiro, who is Jewish, would rankle pro-Palestinian activists within the core of the Democratic Party. In open displays of antisemitism, some Harris supporters publicly suggested that picking Shapiro would give Israel too much control within the next administration.

The Democrat’s oscillating answers on fracking have also opened her up to criticism that she isn’t being truthful about her plans to ban or severely curtail the practice if elected. During her 2019 presidential campaign, Harris pledged to implement a nationwide ban, citing studies from environmental groups that purported to show negative effects on local water supplies. Today, Harris claims to fully support Pennsylvania’s right to use pressurized water to mine deposits of natural gas. Reporters have cast doubts on her authenticity, citing other far-left promises she made in the past – such as paying for gender transitions for migrants and felons – which are nowhere to be found on her current platform.

President Trump traveled to Wilkes-Barre, PA roughly a month ago, using a campaign rally as an opportunity to zigzag between economic proposals and personal insults of his rivals, according to the AP. “Joe Biden hates her,” Trump said of Harris while ripping her latest promise to implement price controls on goods like groceries if elected. “Day one for Kamala was three and a half years ago. So why didn’t she do it then? So this is day 1,305,” Trump said.

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