By now the narrative is so familiar it is almost soporific: Europe’s right-wing parties, or most of them, are poised to leap ahead of many of their rudderless left-wing counterparts in the EU’s parliamentary elections 10 days from now.

That has most of the reflexively liberal press from Politico to CNN in something of a panic, to the extent that it obscures a far more interesting question — namely, exactly what the “far right” intends to do with the power it could find itself wielding after June 9. 

A resurgent conservative wave could sweep away heretofore flimsy European efforts to manage illegal immigration. In terms of geostrategic projection, that wave would shore up support for Israel at a time when the country is trying to rebuild an image badly damaged by months of an internationally unpopular war against Hamas. 

One of the most visible ways for a country to express full-throttled support for the Jewish state is to do as President Trump did and move its embassy to Israel’s capital, Jerusalem. The Dutch Party for Freedom, helmed by Geert Wilders, has suggested it will do so, and it is now part of the country’s governing coalition.

Earlier this month, as part of its incoming coalition agreement with a trio of other parties, Mr. Wilders insisted that in the near future there will be an “examination” of moving the Dutch embassy in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv. That would represent a clean break with the European Union’s position that the final status of Jerusalem must be settled by negotiation.

Then there is the matter of the recognition of a Palestinian state by a growing number of European countries. One is Spain. The head of the country’s far-right Vox party, who on May 28 met with Prime Minister Netanyahu at the Israeli capital, is unambiguously opposed to the notion of recognition of a Palestinian state. The Vox party leader, Santiago Abascal, voiced his objection to Madrid’s recent recognition of the Palestinian state when on May 28 he met Mr. Netanyahu.

That same day Marion Maréchal, lead candidate of the French nationalist party in the upcoming European elections, Reconquête, stated that at the present time recognizing a Palestinian state would be tantamount to creating “an Islamist state, with all the dangers that this could represent for Israel and for the West in general.”

Israel, for its part, does not have official relations with Europe’s rising right-wing parties. Yet, amid all the jockeying on the Continent ahead of June’s vote, something newsworthy happened earlier this month at Madrid. At an event organized by the Vox party, Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, as well as the former president of France’s National Rally party, Marine Le Pen, rallied voters with messages that criticized the EU bloc’s climate policy and wobbly stance on illegal immigration.

Another common refrain among speakers, who included Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orban, and a former Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, was support for Israel as its fight against Hamas in Gaza continues. In the audience was Israel’s minister of diaspora affairs, Amichai Chikli. Whether he was there in an official government capacity was not immediately clear, but according to multiple reports Mr. Chikli had an informal meeting with Ms. Le Pen. 

Unlike Marine Le Pen, a likely frontrunner in the next French national elections, President Macron has been unable to carve out a truly pro-Israel position. The wily French leader, who is trailing Ms. Le Pen in virtually every poll, has also given sanction to a ban on Israeli companies attending an upcoming defense fair near Paris. 

According to a statement from the fair’s organizer, Coges Event, “By decision of the government authorities, there will be no stand for the Israeli defense industry at the Eurosatory 2024 fair.”

From Jerusalem, a war cabinet minister, Benny Gantz,  has sought an intervention from the French prime minister, Gabriel Attal, writing on X, “I emphasized to him that the decision ultimately rewards terror and asked that France reconsider the decision.”
France like other European countries has seen a surge in violent antisemitic crimes since war broke out in the Middle East with the Hamas attacks of October 7. Conservative politicians like Ms. Pen in France and Mr. Wilders in the Netherlands are experts in leveraging the public’s frustration with rising crime and lawlessness for political momentum. If change does come in June, it could be as impactful in many European capitals as it could be in Jerusalem.