The New York Times is cautioning Americans that, for the second consecutive presidential election, there may not be an immediate winner declared on election night. The delay could resemble the 2020 election, where early results differed from the final outcome due to the time required to process mail-in ballots.

This warning comes as a large number of Americans choose to vote by mail rather than in person, slowing down vote counting. Key battleground states like Arizona, where Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are nearly tied in most polls, are also known for lengthier vote-counting processes.

The New York Times emphasized that a delay in declaring a winner should not be seen as a failure of the system but rather a result of the security measures involved in counting mail-in ballots. These measures include signature verification and ensuring no individual voted twice—once by mail and once in person. Election officials also manually process mail-in ballots by taking them out of the envelope, flattening them, and putting them into a tabulator, which takes additional time.

In 2020, the election was not called until the Saturday after Election Day, with final counts showing that more Democrats voted by mail than Republicans. According to the Election Project, in the 20 states that reported party registration by ballot, 18 million Democrats voted by mail compared to 10 million Republicans. The margin was larger in several swing states as well. 

This trend of delayed results is expected to continue in 2024, though several states have improved their mail-in ballot processing procedures. For example, Michigan passed a referendum in 2022 allowing officials to start processing ballots eight days before Election Day. 

However, swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still lack legislation permitting early ballot processing, which will contribute to delayed results. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt noted that the challenge of slow vote counting has been known since 2020 but remains unaddressed.

“It is a technical challenge with a technical solution, that everyone has known about since 2020, but legislation was never passed to address it,” said Schmidt. 

State officials in battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have already stated publicly that full results from their states will not be available on election night. Officials continued to advise voters to remain patient and not be influenced by premature declarations of victory on election night, as full results may take days to finalize.