In any election year, swing states play a major role in determining the winner. Breaking the analytics down even further reveals that a handful of “bellwether” counties within those states can often help track the direction of a presidential race months before Election Day.

Florida is home to one such county, Duval, and its early mail-in ballot requests show much more momentum behind the GOP than the Democratic Party.

According to Florida’s Voice:

Republicans still trail Democrats in mail-in requests, as expected. Below is the shift in favor of the GOP over Democrats in 2020, as of Sept. 11, 2024:

• Duval: R+11.6
• Miami-Dade: R+6.6
• Hillsborough: R+4.9
• Pinellas: R+2.7

What is a ‘bellwether?’

Bellwether counties in American politics are counties whose demographics and trends can be a “tell” of a larger, more nationwide shift.

Duval County is one prime bellwether for the nation and for Florida in recent years.

In fact, NBC reported two years ago that Duval “showed Florida’s shift to the right” for the 2022 election, won by Gov. Ron DeSantis by 12 points.

In 2016, former President Donald Trump won the county by around 1 point, and in 2020, President Joe Biden won the county by around 4 points. You’ll note that Trump did worse in Duval than in 2016, but then won the state by more than he did in 2016 – and then lost the election at-large.

However, with the state and Duval shifting Republican by registration at-large, it is less likely that the “winner” of that county will be much of a tell. What will matter, though, is how strongly the Republican performs in Duval, along with the other counties.

One Florida political pundit cited this development as a key piece of information ahead of November’s election:

🚨 BREAKING: KEY U.S. BELLWETHER COUNTY BOLTS TO THE RIGHT, early mail-in data finds.

🔴 NET GOP SHIFT: R+11.5

Duval County correctly voted for the presidential winner nationwide in 16 AND 20, and notably in 2022 showed Florida's rightward shift.

Here's the shocking data -…

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 12, 2024

Republicans have been focusing on several other bellwether counties across the United States thus far in the campaign.

Great representing @TPAction_ and the @UDRepublicans at the Montgomery County GOP Lincoln day dinner this evening!

This is a true bellwether county. Let’s make sure Montgomery County goes bright RED this November. pic.twitter.com/O6LW0jQZMG

— Gabe Guidarini (@GabeGuidarini) September 13, 2024

Tarrant County is squarely in the democrat's crosshairs. It is the bellwether for Texas this November.

Republicans have to come together and reject the evil the left is pushing now, or we will lose. @TuckerCarlson came to Fort Worth to help. pic.twitter.com/vVkJzP3TjL

— Bo French (@Bo_French_TX) March 21, 2024

This is very interesting: Trump is carrying Nassau County by +2 points according to the Siena College Poll. In February, much of the liberal press was promoting Nassau County as an electoral bellwether.

In 2016, Trump lost this county by 6.2 points, and in 2020, he lost by 9.52… https://t.co/WNUwD1q8xE pic.twitter.com/ppPYg6WZD2

— evolian (@gen0m1cs) May 24, 2024

Earlier this year GOP leaders were already expressing optimism about the party’s chances in Duval County, As Action News Jax reported:

Duval, which is often seen as a bellwether county, is closely watched even at the national level, but the latest voter registration numbers have Republicans optimistic looking ahead to November and beyond.

Closing the gap by 17,000 voters in roughly a year’s time, Duval Republicans believe they’re on the verge of flipping the script on voter registration in the county for the first time in modern history.

Considering Mayor Deegan won her election by about 9,000 votes, Duval GOP Chair Dean Black argued the latest numbers suggest the tides have turned.

“And it’s a longer story than that. Remember Andrew Gillum won Duval County back in 2018 and Democrats had a lead of nearly 42,000 and today their lead is only 11,000 and dropping every single day,” said Black.

While the Florida Democratic Party committed to fielding candidates in every state house and senate race this year, Black noted one county-wide and two regional races in Duval – the clerk of courts, public defender and state attorney – all went uncontested for Republicans.

“I think what you saw is Democrats throwing in the towel and waiving the white flag,” said Black.

Here’s how voters in that county responded to the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump: