THE TRUMP TRIAL, THE TICKING CLOCK, AND BIDEN’S RUSH TO RECOVER. It would be hard to find anyone, Democrat or Republican, who would honestly say that President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign is well run. But does that explain some of the unusual developments we’ve seen from the campaign lately?

Start with the weird scene outside former President Donald Trump’s trial in Manhattan on Tuesday, the day both sides gave their closing arguments. Whose idea was it to enlist the virulent Trump hater Robert De Niro to serve as the spokesman for the Biden campaign? For weeks, Biden had been mostly silent about Trump’s difficulties, with the exception of the occasional snarky remark. But as jury deliberations neared, there were leaks that Biden was planning to address the issue, once there was a verdict.

“Biden intends to initially address the verdict in a White House setting — not a campaign one — to show his statement isn’t political,” reported Politico on May 24. The idea that anyone would believe Biden’s statement on his opponent’s trial was nonpolitical seems laughable, but that is at least what sources told Politico.

In any event, the idea was, apparently, for the president to discuss the trial after the verdict. But the campaign couldn’t wait. It sent out a notice that Biden representatives and supporters would make a statement outside the courthouse when closing arguments were underway. Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler introduced De Niro, so there was no doubt that De Niro was, at that moment, the voice of the Biden campaign.

“The fact is, whether he’s acquitted, whether it’s a hung jury, whatever it is, he is guilty, and we all know it,” De Niro said of Trump. “I’ve never seen a guy get out of so many things, and we all know this. Everybody in the world knows this.” Does De Niro think Trump should go to prison? “I sure do,” he said. “Absolutely.”

The scene turned into a circus when MAGA types began asking De Niro provocative questions. Then came the insults and a New York Post cover photo of the Oscar-winning actor jabbing his finger at someone with the headline “RAGING BULLS***.” The point is, is this what the Biden campaign thought was a good idea? 

Wouldn’t it have been better for the president to remain quiet while the trial was underway and then, if Trump were convicted, make a statement affirming the importance of the rule of law, done in a more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger voice (even if he was jumping up and down in celebration inside)? Instead, Biden jumped the gun, not even waiting for jury deliberations, much less a verdict. And then he made De Niro, who practically foams at the mouth in anger about Trump, the national face of the Biden campaign.

It was a move that suggested some degree of panic. It made the Biden campaign look like it was in a big hurry to do something. And it came a few weeks after another event, in an entirely different context, that suggested Biden is worried. Two weeks ago, after the trial had been underway for weeks with no evidence that it had affected Trump’s narrow but persistent lead over Biden nationally and in key swing states, Biden abruptly challenged Trump to an early debate in June.

What was that about? Biden seemed to be in quite a hurry to move debates way up in the campaign schedule. A debate normally expected in fall would happen instead in early summer. “The most glaring tell is the timing — a JUNE debate and a July VP debate,” Politico columnist Jonathan Martin posted on X. “Biden needs the race to be about Trump, and soon.” Biden’s demand, to which Trump agreed, was another indication that the president, trailing in the polls, is feeling pressure. “Best reveal yet that Biden does believe the polls — and knows his only way back is to drag Trump back into living rooms (which the trial ain’t doing),” Martin wrote.

Now, this week, we’ve seen Biden head to the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia, where he received 81% of the vote in 2020, in an effort to win the support of black voters. Biden has been to the swing state of Pennsylvania seven times this year, and five of those visits included a stop in Philadelphia. It was a sign that Biden is not only deeply concerned about winning Pennsylvania but that he is deeply worried about losing some significant part of his support among black voters, who traditionally make up the most loyally Democratic part of the Democratic coalition.

What’s going on? The story is in the polls. Despite the advantage of incumbency, Biden is behind Trump in national polls. The margin is very, very narrow, about a percentage point in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, but Trump has led Biden since last September. Despite all that has happened, Trump has maintained his slim advantage.

More importantly, Trump leads Biden in the swing states, usually defined as Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump has a margin of between 0.1 points (in Wisconsin) and 5.4 points (in Nevada). Those leads, too, have been remarkably consistent. Many Democrats have been nervous about the swing-state polls since the New York Times published a set of them showing Trump leading in early November, more than six months ago.

Look at one more extremely important number. Again according to RealClearPolitics, Biden’s job approval rating is 40.5% approve and 56.2% disapprove. His approval rating has dipped slightly below 40% several times in the last few months. And no president with a job approval rating of 40% in May of an election year has gone on to win reelection. Yes, the last two Democratic presidents, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, fell in the polls in the year of their reelection. Obama hit 44% in the Gallup poll in August 2012, and Clinton hit 42% in January 1996. But by Election Day, Obama’s approval rating had climbed to 52% and Clinton’s to 54%.

Biden has a very long climb to get above 50%. Maybe he will get there, and maybe it’s just too far to go in too little time. But given the history of presidents and the polls, it’s easy to see why he is nervous and appears in a hurry to shake up the race.